November 27, 2023

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Arthur Hayes Predicts 30% Drop in Short-Term Bitcoin Value

January 29,  2024

By: Pooja

Bitcoin's peak aligns with the two-year US treasury hitting a local low, now showing a gradual increase.

Correlation with US Treasury Yield

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Hayes dismisses GBTC outflows as the sole reason for Bitcoin's decline, citing a net inflow of $820 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

GBTC Outflows Refuted

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BTFP Non-Renewal Concern

Potential non-renewal of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) could impact sentiment; decision set for March 12.

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Bitcoin Price Expectation

Hayes predicts a further Bitcoin price decrease until the BTFP decision, suggesting support between $30,000 to $35,000.

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Options Trading Strategy

Hayes discloses purchasing March 2024 $35,000 strike puts, signaling a bearish stance.

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Post-BTFP Decision Reversal

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Anticipating a trend reversal, Hayes expects Bitcoin to rise post-BTFP decision amid potential financial crisis effects on SPX and NDX in March.