Bitcoin Supply-side Price Indicators at Critical Levels for Bullish Continuation

bitcoin mining halving
Image Source: Shutterstock

Bitcoin Supply-side Price Indicators at Critical Levels for Bullish Continuation

Supply-Side metrics or indicators include hash-rate, difficulty ribbon, Bitcoin addresses, etc. While demand side would include Market Value/Realized Value (MVRV), NVT Ratio, and so on.

Expert on-chain analyst and market analyst, David Puell, had designed a new Bitcoin indicator, the Puell Multiple. It accounts for the supply side metrics of Bitcoin. Glassnode research which recently listed the metrics, tweeted,

The Puell Multiple is the ratio of coin issuance (in USD) and its yearly MA and can be used to identify times when the value of mined #bitcoins is historically too high/low

While halving on the horizon, the supply-side could have a strong effect on the price. Hence, fractals or levels from the past could be helpful in determining the current state.

Halving Fractal from 2016

The Puell multiple during the last halving was in the range of 1.25-1.75. The ratio is reaching similar levels three months before the event. However, it is still a little early to confirm the previous range.

puell multiple bitcoin minng
Bitcoin Price and Puell Multiple (Source)

Moreover, since post halving, the coin issuance ratio would decrease by half, the ratio would turn towards over-sold regions.

At the current levels there seems to be a level of parity between the rewards and mining cost. However, post halving in May, the ratio would flip to its’ lower bounds. This could cause the price to move up further post halving.

According to cryptopoiesis’s regression analysis for the halving in 2020,

Eyeballing the 365day SMA of the Puell Multiple between the values shown in the the graph above would imply a price in the range from $8,889 to $17,778, that of course if the halving would occur, once more, at Puell Multiple level of ~1.6.

Hash Rate Near All-Time Highs

Furthermore, as the hash rate continues to make ATH, the difficulty is also rising. The Hash Rate is currently above 115 mln Th/s at the moment, it reached a high above 120 mTh/s during beginning of bull run this year.

Willy Woo’s difficulty ribbon which estimates the average difficulty over different time periods, signals a buy during times of squeeze. It projects bullish momentum as it continues to expand. The indicator is pointing towards bullish momentum as well.

difficulty ribbon bitcoin
Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon (Source)

However, the ribbon is expected to squeeze further after the halving, hence, if a price fall drives out miners before halving, the expansion would could be delayed for a latter time.

Do you think that price will correct lower or $8000 will hold for miners? Please share your views with us. 

Summary
Bitcoin Supply-side Price Indicators at Critical Levels for Bullish Continuation
Article Name
Bitcoin Supply-side Price Indicators at Critical Levels for Bullish Continuation
Description
Expert on-chain analyst and market analyst, David Puell, had designed a new Bitcoin indicator, the Puell Multiple. It accounts for the supply side metrics of Bitcoin. Supply-Side metrics or indicators include hash-rate, difficulty ribbon, Bitcoin addresses, etc. 
Author
Publisher Name
CoinGape
Publisher Logo
Coingape is committed to following the highest standards of journalism, and therefore, it abides by a strict editorial policy. While CoinGape takes all the measures to ensure that the facts presented in its news articles are accurate.
Disclaimer The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Author: Nivesh Rustgi

Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com

Post your comment...
Nivesh Rustgi 854 Articles

Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com

Follow Nivesh @