Bitcoin [BTC] has continued to trade around the $10k support for quite some time now. The break above 10k came about in a bullish trend. However, a descending triangle pattern has panned out from the yearly highs.
Leading crypto-analysts Tone Vays, Vanzen, Willy Woo, and David Puell weighed in on how they viewed Bitcoin price currently.
Moreover, the altcoin dominance also decreased below 30% during the move. They also estimated the probability and the extent of an altseason.
On Bitcoin’s Prolonged Price Action
Bitcoin [BTC] has been prepping for a big move from the past couple of weeks. However, the price action has prolonged at $10,000 for quite some time now. Due to the institutional view of things and global economic turmoil, Bitcoin has enjoyed a bullish momentum in the first half of 2019.
Moreover, the rise was also fuelled by the short squeeze – the capitulation of short-sellers. Vanzen talked about the general market sentiments using the Bitcoin Funding and premium index indicator developed by Neobutane.
The favorable funding rates and premium are the rates that the BitMEX traders have to pay every 8 hours to hold their positions. Hence, since it is getting more expensive to maintain a long position, a reversal to lower the rates is undoubtedly on the cards.
BitMEX funding rate has been positive for a long time. Mahmudov Murad said,
“I actually means.. to me… that most users are long and fewer users are short. Likely to me, this means that most retail participants are long at the moment… Typically that’s not a good sign.”
‘On-Chain Indicators are Bullish’ – Willy Woo
Nevertheless, the trend in Bitcoin is still positive with the on-chain and mining indicators. The NVT signal which analyses the on-chain volume with the price movements is currently bearish.
However, Willy Woo suggested that
“…there could be literally seeing 100s and millions of dollars of ownership in Bitcoin not being picked up on the blockchain”
This is due to developments of the futures market, custody contracts, ‘Hodling’ and the 400-500% increase in Exchange Bitcoin volumes.
Bullish on Altcoins as Well, But
On a somewhat surprising note, the panel which is ‘Bitcoin maximalists’ suggested that altcoins could turn positive in the short term.
Taking Litecoin [LTC] as the indicator, Willy Woo suggested that there could be a bullish divergence from the short-selling for the last couple of weeks.
The Litecoin hash rate has decreased drastically. Hence, Woo suggested that it reduces the selling pressure from miners, providing an opportunity of upside in the short term. Nevertheless, Puell warned that instead of a bull, the altcoins could trade sideways for a while longer.
However, the overall view was one of increase Bitcoin [BTC] dominance eventually.
The average estimated probability of a fall below $7000 from the analysts was below 10%. Nevertheless, it grew correspondingly higher for $8000. Their likelihood of a new all-time high before the next halving was way higher.
Do you agree with their estimates? Please share your views with us.
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Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com