Bitcoin has been divided into 4-year cycles, it is an intrinsic property of Bitcoin in which the miner rewards are reduced by half every four years to make Bitcoin deflationary. Currently, the inflation on Bitcoin is above 3.5%.
Since we’re still in the early phases on Bitcoin, only two halving events have been conducted until now, in 2012 and 2016. The current mining reward for validating a Bitcoin is 12.5 BTC. It will be reduced to 6.25 BTC after the halving event coming next year.
Analogy Between the Bear and Bull Cycles of 2014 and 2017
Furthermore, market sentiments have also followed the halving event very closely in the past. The price grew exponentially in 2013. The 2016 halving event was a significant driver of growth in the last bull and bear run of 2013-2015. Nevertheless, post that event there was a 57-week bear market followed by around 65 weeks of accumulation.
The 2017 bull market recorded over 5700% gains from $300 levels to $19500. The bull market ended at the beginning of 2018 in January after the trend reversal started to pull the price downwards. The bottom being identified in a graph suggests the end of a bearish trend. If $3150 if the bottom identified in this cycle, then the bear market was shortened slightly by a couple of weeks; it lasted for 52-weeks.
Nevertheless, as soon the bottom was suggested by the analyst, the accumulation seems to have ended sooner than before. Dovey Won, crypto-analyst and founder of Wheatpond, shared an analogy about the current correction from 2015 which takes us 5 months ahead of accumulation phase in 2015. Furthermore, the previous bull run in 2016 began during the month of May itself.
History doesn't repeat itself but it often …
… Rekt you the same way 😭😭 pic.twitter.com/t0XNOghFIg
— Dovey Wan 🗝 🦖 (@DoveyWan) May 17, 2019
Many analysts have confirmed that the bull market might have begun with Bitcoin breaking above two times the bottom value ($6300). It also broke above key resistance at $6400 like putting ‘knife in hot butter.’ Moreover, it also agrees with the market sentiments as the optimism toward Bitcoin is higher this time around.
Furthermore, the uncertainty over the regulatory ban and zero value FUD created during the past are a thing of the past now with Institutions like Fidelity, Bakkt, TA Ameritrade, eTrade and SquareCash stepping in to fill the demand for cryptocurrencies.
Do you think that the bull run has begun as well? Please share your views with us.
Disclaimer The views, opinions, positions or strategies expressed by the authors and those providing comments are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, positions or strategies of CoinGape. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Nivesh from Engineering Background is a full-time Crypto Analyst at Coingape. He is an atheist who believes in love and cultural diversity. He believes that Cryptocurrency is a necessity to deter corruption. He holds small amounts of cryptocurrencies. Faith and fear are two sides of the same coin. Follow him on Twitter at @nivishoes or mail him at nivesh(at)coingape.com