“This analysis is an adaptation from the work of Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst at eToro”
- Bitcoin enters the longest bear market
- From December 2017 the market has slipped nearly 82%
- The current bear market has lasted for 413 days without indication of a turnaround
Bitcoin enters Chinese New Year expecting a turnaround
While Bitcoin languishes around USD 3500 trying to keep up the hopes of investors, the overall bear market in cryptos has now officially logged its longest bear market in the asset’s relatively short history. From December 2017 until today bitcoin has dropped a total of 82% from peak to trough, making a total stretch of 413 days without any indication of a turnaround.
One needs to note that even though this is the longest stretch, it’s not the deepest. The five-month bear of 2011 saw a drawdown of 93% and the crypto winter from the end of 2013 to the beginning of 2015 saw a total drawdown of 86%.
While that’s in numbers, technically, his past year and a half one can notice a very specific formation that has repeated itself incessantly… the descending triangle. With $5,500 (blue line in the chart below) as the base, the market has seen six different wedges, four of which have broken to the downside. Now that the blue line is broken, the market has moved the support level to $3,000 and one can see that coming to the seventh wedge. While the indications on a chart are pessimistic, some analysts have indicated that the markets may have further downside while others are pointing out that there may have entered the apathy phase for bitcoin trading, an annoying yet necessary stage in the investment cycle.
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Mati Greenspan is the Senior Market Analyst at eToro, a global social trading and investment platform. Mati is a licensed portfolio manager in the European Union and his main focus is on macroeconomic analysis, portfolio diversification and cryptocurrencies. Follow him on Twitter at @matigreenspan