The number of Bitcoin Longs on Bitfinex is at a 21-month high. At pixel time(1:45PM UTC+3), there were 41.3k margin Longs against a mere 5.9k margin Shorts, a disparity that could be a shot in the arm for optimistic bulls who have been battered in the last six months.
Are Bulls Accumulating?
Trading below the psychological $8,000 mark, BTC bulls are dangling around 2019 lows and risk dropping to $6,000 if bears step up, forcing liquidation five months ahead of a definitive halving. There is a debate on whether that has already been priced in:
Grayscale published results of its Bitcoin halving survey.
56 percent believe that the upcoming mining reward reduction is not priced in.
27 percent are certain that the market has already incorporated the event into the price.
17 percent are not sure.
— Jason A. Williams ? (@JWilliamsFstmed) December 10, 2019
Nonetheless, the difference between short and long positions favors bulls. As a result, while Bitcoin prices are consolidating and capped below $8,000 as bears threaten to cause havoc to HODLers’ positions, technical and fundamental factors could spur demand in the last few days into 2020.
John Bollinger: Watch Bitcoin
While leading a crypto analyst is cautious, urging traders and bulls not to place positions without due diligence or rely “blind faith,” John Bollinger, the inventor of the Bollinger Bands (BB) technical indicator is urging traders to keep a close eye on Bitcoin.
“If we see a rally, understand that BTC remains in a BEAR MARKET DOWNTREND. Bear markets have rallies too, and BTC is in a technical bear market right now. Until we see some higher highs and higher lows, the trend is bearish and down, even if we see a rally to 9000.”
From the daily chart, thanks in part to Bitcoin price consolidation, a BB Squeeze has formed, hinting of low volatility. There is therefore a high likelihood of heightened volatility especially if BTC price rally.
Bitcoin Longs increasing because of Halving and Deep Correction in the last six months
Aside expectations of price recovery in 2020, commentators are pinning this surge of BTC longs on the extreme fear that has gripped the market, and the deep correction in the last six months.
Highlighted, the reading on the Fear and Greed index is at 22, and that shows how apprehensive traders are. As fear prevents the free flow of funds in the sphere, forcing prices lower, risk-off traders could be aggressively accumulating and buying for cheap.
For now, traders are patient. Until when there is a strong uptick of trading volumes, lifting prices above $7,900-$8,000 resistance zone, BTC remains in a firm down-trend.