A ‘bull market’ is described when the momentum is inclined only towards the positive side. Bitcoin [BTC] rose about 5700% during the bull market of 2016-2017. It was characterized by a phase of continuous rise forming higher highs and higher lows.
The Bitcoin markets have been on the rise since March 2019 as it broke above the $4000 support level on 2nd April 2019. Furthermore, while many traders have confirmed that Bitcoin would not go below the December 2018 lows of $3000, the decision between a bull run or an accumulation phase is still unclear.
On-Chain Volume Must Rise Before the Bull Run?
The on-chain transaction volume is measured in billions USD, it is the volume of USD of all the transactions on the Bitcoin ledger during the day. Bitcoin On-Chain transaction volume has been on the rise since April 2019.
Moreover, the daily on-chain transaction volume was also on the rise during the bull phase of 2016-2017. It was evident during the bull run of 2012-13 as well.
Prior to the previous 2017 bull run, the on-chain volume on Bitcoin was below 500 million USD. Nevertheless, it rose from below 1 billion USD to about 40 billion USD in daily on-chain volume which coincided with the peak of the bull run as well.
Hence, according to this analysis compiled by Willy Woo, David Puell and Murad Mahmudov suggest that the on-chain transaction volume must figuratively “moon” to confirm yet another market indicator for a bull run; suggesting at least a three-fold increase in On-chain volume. The current On-chain volume is around $4.2 billion USD. He recently reiterated this fact in a tweet,
“We also need price to be validated with on-chain volume mooning from here. We’ll likely get that confirmation soon in the next 4-8 wks.”
On other technical aspects, Woo suggested that that the 200-Day Moving Average and the realized capitalization of Bitcoin [BTC] could both be retested before the bull run. The 200-Day Moving Average on the daily chart on Bitcoin is currently at $4409. However, also reaffirmed his earlier stand on the “Bottom being in” He added in the tweets:
“I’m 95% certain the market has bottomed, that’s to say we are unlikely to break below past lows.”
Furthermore, as Mati Greenspan had also noted in his interview earlier that the bull market cannot be predicted to accuracy; it can only be experienced when we’re in it. Willy Woo seemed to reiterate the sentiments as well. He added in his tweets,
“(I personally think the April 1st break above $4300 will be remembered years ahead as the start of the 2019 bull market).”
Do you think that on-chain volume “mooning” is required for the next bull run? Please share your analysis with us.