Trading crypto and Bitcoin tags its fair share of uncertainty. Traders are left speculating on the future of the world’s leading digital asset less than 10 days before a halving.
Judging from how price action panned out after Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash halved last year and last month, respectively, a recent twitter poll points that a majority of traders and coin holders expect Bitcoin to follow the same trajectory and fall from spot rates.
When Litecoin halved in early August, prices peaked at $80. Since then, LTC bulls have found sell pressure insurmountable and prices continue to range with support at around $30. The same was observed with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) when miner rewards was halved in mid-April 2019. Prices are, at the time of press, range bound with caps at $290 with support at $140.
LTC went into a halving and dumped.
BCH went into a halving and dumped.
BTC is heading into a halving and is going to:
1) Dump, same kind of reasoning as LTC and BCH
2) Do nothing, cause there is actual demand
3) Pump, BTC is just different than altcoins
— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) May 5, 2020
Nonetheless, nothing can be taken as gospel.
Fiat Continues to Fail, Is Crypto & Bitcoin The Answer?
There are tons of variables that influence price action and Bitcoin being the most liquid has the faith of traders more than altcoins. Besides, going by past price action and behavior of Bitcoin patterns before and after halving, odds are price will soar to Feb 2020 highs and even June 2019 peaks of around $14,000.
Behind this reasoning is the continuous dilapidation of fiat, and interventionist steps by governments. Just recently, it was revealed that the US government seeks to borrow $3 trillion to prop the economy and businesses as they seek to temper effects of the coronavirus scourge.
In addition to printing trillions of USD the US govt is now raising USD 3 trillion by selling government bonds.
1. The bonds are worthless.
2. This new debt only covers Q2.
3. More debt required in Q3/4.
Bankruptcy and hyperinflation are inevitable. Switch to crypto & gold.
— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) May 5, 2020
Understandably, the USD is the leading reserve currency and sometimes debt in emerging economies are denominated in the greenback. Endless money printing and bond buying will introduce inflationary pressure and the consequence will be the loss of billions or trillions of dollars as fiat purchasing power drops.
Bitcoin will Soar because of Safe Haven Tailwinds?
Coupled with central banks flirting with negative interest rates meaning banks will be paid for holding depositors funds hinting at how grim the situation is, investors are actively searching for alternatives.
This builds the case for Bitcoin and other safe havens like gold or bonds for instance. At already, funds is being channeled to crypto of which most will likely be parked in Bitcoin.
Furthermore, there is optimism in the sense that more people now hold over 0.1 BTC and concurrently, the number of Bitcoin addresses has been on the rise in a quarter-to-quarter basis.
The Bitcoin network has grown almost 25% within the last year
Addresses holding BTC: +24.2%
Addresses with ≥ 0.01 BTC: +18.5%
Addresses with ≥ 0.1 BTC: +14.6%
Addresses with ≥ 1 BTC: +11.4%
— Unfolded (@cryptounfolded) April 27, 2020
This spark of confidence ahead of Bitcoin halving and amid the uncertainty of the world economy means the coin could likely edge higher as price is driven by safe haven status despite the possibility of hash rate falling.