What Are Odds Of Bitcoin Surpassing $20k By Year End?

There is a 7.6 percent chance that the Bitcoin (BTC) price will soar above $20,000 and print new all-time high by the end of the year. This is according to Deribit, a Bitcoin derivatives trading platform and a leader in the BTC options market, which derived its view after analyzing bets placed on the Bitcoin price from their options market.

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Bitcoin Fundamentals Are Strong

Admittedly, Bitcoin prices move haphazardly regardless of underlying fundamentals and even skews from technical analysts.

Presently, it is clear that its fundamentals are strong following a successful halving roughly a month ago. Then, the number of Bitcoin rewards issued to a successful mining pool was halved to 6.25 BTC per block.

Halving is in-built and encoded in the cryptocurrency’s source code and this feature gifts the coin its attractive scarcity element.

Still, despite expectations of an immediate price spike following the halving event has been squelched and BTC continues to consolidate below the strong sell wall at around the $10,000-$10,500 zone.

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Why BTC Price may rally to $20,000?

If Deribit’s traders view sails and BTC soar not only past the $10,500 hurdle but past the $20,000 mark of late 2017, odds are the BTC price will tear and even double the recent all-time high of $20,000 as adjudged from various technical, fundamental, and political factors.

We all know BTC can make crazy moves at any time, but what’s your view on BTC hitting ath this year?

The option market on Deribit is currently pricing the likelihood of BTC being at $20k in:

June: 0.4%
September: 4.3%
December: 7.6% pic.twitter.com/YJ8OiCHHQu

— Deribit (@DeribitExchange) June 8, 2020

As the number of coins emitted daily has halved to 6.25 BTC, the pressure heaped by miners who liquidated their stash to cover operational costs has also reduced.

Concurrently, the political landscape, exacerbated by monetary policy stances adopted by various countries due to the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic means BTC, gold, and select fiat currencies are likely to benefit from capital flight.

Bitcoin, like gold, has a scarcity element and made better by its digital property meaning it can be moved at a second, and even anonymized through various channels that obfuscate BTC transactions.

Technically, the stock-to-flow model predicts a rosy future of Bitcoin prices. Just recently, a “red” dot printed, igniting excitement from the trading community that BTC may be on a steady road towards recovery perhaps even towards Feb 2020 highs as the foundation for a rally past $20,000 in coming years is prepared.

#Bitcoin S2F chart update .. RED DOT RELEASED!!! pic.twitter.com/iNTjbf9b9K

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 31, 2020

Regardless, these are optimistic prognosis by analysts. For now, only traders can wait and see if bulls will overcome $10,500 or collapse back to $7,500 sparking another wave of selloff by hard-pressed miners.