Will the US End the Iran Blockade by September 30, 2026?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 86% while Yes trades at 14%.
• This market has recorded $3.3M in trading volume, with $54.6K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $107.1K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on October 1, 2026

Overview

The “US announces end of Iranian blockade by…?” contract resolves Yes if Washington publicly and officially announces the termination, lifting or suspension of its blockade on Iranian ships and ports before 11:59 PM ET on a specific date. The September 30, 2026 ladder has the US ending the blockade at 33% and No at 68%, with volume totals of $924, 925 and $103.1K traded in the past 24 hours against $105.5K of liquidity. Pricing has weakened through August: the August 31 blockade contract sat near 40% on Oman deal optimism before the deadline lapsed.

Trump: “There are no talks or conversations going on”

US President’s comments on Tuesday gave traders their clearest signal in weeks. “There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote, confirming no negotiations are underway and adding that the blockade stays in full force. He also claimed the Strait of Hormuz is “open and operating” with “all water mines removed or detonated,” and posted an image labelling the waterway “New US Territory.”

Tehran says the opposite. Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf confirmed the strait stays closed until Washington lifts the blockade, the sanctions and the military operations set out in the June memorandum, while Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Trump’s reading of the strait would be “corrected.”

As a trader, these latest comments give a very clear path on when the blockade could end. Each side has made the other’s concession its own precondition. That deadlock is why Yes sits at 33% instead of the tail end of any side. 

The 60-day MOU signed in June expired on August 17 and Trump declined to extend it, and later that evening the UAE Defence Ministry reported that two ballistic missiles launched from Iran had landed in the sea off its coast.

What moves the price from here

The Iran-Oman transit route understanding is the live variable. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on August 17 the two sides had agreed on “the map of the transit route,” to be finalised as a package with a joint statement. American officials have tied lifting the blockade to restored commercial shipping, so a signed package carrying Washington’s sign-on is the one realistic path to Yes before October. Nothing has been signed.

Working against it: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on August 13 the Navy can hold the blockade “indefinitely… we’ll rotate ships in and out,” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised sanctions “like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation” the same day. Hormuz traffic has meanwhile sunk to near three-month lows. A drone strike on a Hormuz tanker pushed oil up more than 5% inside a single week. Escalation kills it.