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Jan 06, 2024

Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Crash in March: Here's Why

Founder Arthur Hayes warns of a substantial 30-40% Bitcoin correction, citing concerns about the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) Balance dropping to a critical $200 billion.

Market Anxiety in March

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Hayes speculates on the significance of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expiring on March 12th, foreseeing potential liquidity crises and market inquisition.

Critical Test for Banks

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Focuses on the Federal Reserve's meeting where a rate cut is expected, shaping market expectations and influencing dollar liquidity provision dynamics.

Fed's March 20th Decision 

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Hayes reveals his plan to short the crypto market using Bitcoin puts during this critical period, prepared to capitalize on the predicted market downturn.

Tactical Trading Strategy

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Warns about the potential highs and lows driven by speculation around US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

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Impact of ETF Speculation

Outlines his tactical decisions, including shorting the market with Bitcoin puts and strategically selling US Treasury bills to acquire more Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Hayes' Trading Approach

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Hayes acknowledges potential variations in his predictions, noting the need for adjustments in his trading approach based on different market behaviors.

Contemplating Scenarios

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