BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes on Tuesday revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to cut interest rates will make Bitcoin quickly rally towards $70,000. Hayes earlier considered Bitcoin to rise towards $70,000 after March, but the Fed hiked interest rates three times from March to the present. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said to rely on inflation and jobs data to make their next decision.
Macroeconomic analysts are trying to predict when the U.S. Fed will stop raising interest rates or pivot since the central bank continued to hike rates after the bank collapse in March. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet has decreased amid the debt ceiling crisis.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done with rate hikes as the jobs market cools and the unemployment rate climbed last month. In addition, traders are awaiting the CPI and PPI data this week to confirm the market direction.
Arthur Hayes said the reason why Bitcoin failed to reach $70,000 after March is that people focused more on nominal Fed rates and did not compare them to high nominal GDP growth in the US.
“It seemed the Fed’s only option was to cut rates, restore the health of the US banking system, and watch Bitcoin quickly march towards $70,000.”
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Hayes said during a keynote at the Korea Blockchain Week conference, he was asked about whether Bitcoin can still rise if the Fed continues to raise rates. Bitcoin has a positive relationship with Fed policy and other macro factors. Currently, it hints at an upcoming rally in Bitcoin as real rates (US 2Yr Treasury Yields minus nominal GDP growth) are turning positive.
BTC price currently trades at $26123, up 2% in the last 24 hours. The price started rising amid buying by traders, with trading volume rising 100% in the past 24 hours.
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