Bitcoin News: BTC has been on the investors’ radar lately, with the flagship crypto recording a gain of nearly 4% today. Amid this, a recent report hints toward a potential BTC rally by 20% by January end, during the Chinese New Year, citing historical trends. Besides, speculations further mount amid soaring market optimism over a potential Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pro-crypto regulations in the US, especially after Donald Trump’s inauguration.
The Chinese New Year, starting on January 29 this year, has proven to be a bullish period for Bitcoin. In 11 out of the last 12 years, Bitcoin delivered positive returns during this festive season, achieving an 83% success rate, Matrixport reported. The report attributes this trend to heightened trading activity, as families and investors exchange gifts and funds, driving demand for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, the on-chain analytics firm highlights China’s dominance in Bitcoin’s early days. By 2014, the country controlled nearly 70% of global Bitcoin trading, fueled by strict capital controls, speculative investments, and large-scale mining operations. Besides, the Chinese tech sector played a pivotal role, in building mining rigs and increasing the number of validation nodes globally.
In addition, the report noted that as more people learn about and buy Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency gains momentum. However, few events rival the Chinese New Year in amplifying this network effect.
Matrixport noted that Bitcoin’s current price is influenced by conflicting forces. On the technical side, oversold indicators suggest potential support, while weekly metrics point to overbought conditions. On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies and tightening liquidity present challenges. However, expectations of the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve under a pro-crypto Trump presidency offer bullish support.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump made a flurry of pro-crypto promises during his election campaign, which bolstered market sentiment. Besides, the US SEC has also rescinded the SAB 121 crypto accounting rule, which has further fueled market sentiment.
On the other hand, Trump has recently reiterated his stance on making the US the crypto capital. Besides, his pro-crypto focus is also evidenced by the recent executive order to create a national digital asset stockpile.
Simultaneously, Matrixport noted that stablecoin minting remains subdued post-December’s FOMC meeting, signaling limited fiat inflows. However, funding rates for Bitcoin show early signs of recovery. This delicate balance has kept Bitcoin prices in a consolidation phase, poised for potential breakout opportunities.
The Chinese New Year, starting January 29, marks a statistically significant period for Bitcoin. In 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin surged by 26% and 23%, respectively, reinforcing the reliability of this seasonal trend.
Meanwhile, Matrixport analysts emphasize this period as the “most favorable 20-day window” for Bitcoin, offering promising opportunities for long positions. With daily reversal indicators signaling potential, many traders see the festive season as a unique catalyst for growth. Having said that, a BTC rally by 20% is likely if the history repeats this year.
However, investors remained cautious, given some recent Bitcoin news that has dampened the market sentiment. For context, recent reports of China dumping its BTC holdings have added to concern this week amid a volatile market trend.
BTC price today delivered nearly 4% gain to trade at $105,399, with its trading volume soaring 49% to $94 billion. Notably, the crypto has touched an all-time high of $109K on Trump’s inauguration day, reflecting the market’s growing confidence. However, the current Relative Strength Index stands at 61, signaling a strong uptrend momentum for the crypto.
In addition, the recent market trends and global leaders’ shifting focus towards BTC could further boost the ongoing rally in the asset. Notably, a recent Bitcoin price analysis also hints towards a potential rally for the crypto to $120K, indicating the strong confidence of the market participants.
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