Bitcoin Price: BTC Nears Bull Cycle Peak, Is $100K Dream Fading?

The Bitcoin (BTC) price is facing significant resistance as it approaches a critical point in its current bull cycle. Moreover, recent indicators suggest the cycle peak may be near though the price is currently hovering around $67,500. This raises concerns about the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the ambitious $100,000 target by the end of the year.

AVIV Ratio Indicates Cycle Peak Is Near

Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio, a metric comparing the crypto’s active market valuation with its realized valuation, has recently signaled potential resistance by turning yellow. This indicates that investors may be starting to distribute their coins.

Historically, such signals have preceded cycle peaks. With the AVIV Ratio approaching 2 points, concerns are growing, despite analysts still considering the $100,000 target feasible. Bitcoin’s history of significant price swings adds to the uncertainty, reflecting its inherent volatility.

Over the years, the Bitcoin price has seen dramatic shifts. Starting at around $13 in 2012, it surged to $732 by the end of 2013. In 2017, it climbed from about $1,000 to a peak of $19,188 in December. The rally continued into 2021, with Bitcoin surpassing $60,000 in April and peaking at $64,895 before falling below $20,000 by mid-2022.

In 2023, Bitcoin saw a resurgence, rising steadily from $16,530 at the beginning of the year to $42,258 by its end. The approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 spurred another rally, pushing prices above $70,000 by March, peaking at $73,750. However, recent weeks have seen a decline to $67,500, reflecting investor caution ahead of crucial U.S. inflation reports and Federal Reserve policy decisions that could influence near-term interest rates.

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Will Bitcoin Price Hit $100,000 This Year?

Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects despite the AVIV ratio indicator. He believes the bull market will persist, potentially driving the price to $100,000 by year-end, according to The Economic Times report. Moreover, Patel points to the influx of new retail and institutional investors using Spot Bitcoin ETFs to enter the market.

The reduced Bitcoin mining supply due to Halving, combined with increased demand from ETFs, is fueling the current bull run. In addition, Patel suggests that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, alongside easing inflation, could boost the Bitcoin price potential. Lower Fed interest rates often weaken the dollar and increase liquidity, making alternative assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

Meanwhile, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen also foresees potential for Bitcoin’s price improvement. She predicts that while Bitcoin might stay within the $64,000 to $75,000 range, a bull market could commence around September. This could be driven by new asset protocols and the popularity of memecoins among retail investors.

Moreover, Standard Chartered Bank maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin. Their recent report suggests that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 within a year. They consider this target reasonable, noting that Bitcoin could potentially see a tenfold increase from the bear market bottom to the bull market peak. Hence, it could possibly reach around $120,000.

On Wednesday, June 12, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recently saw $100 million in inflows, reversing the week’s outflows. Earlier, these ETFs clocked 19 consecutive days of inflows, acquiring 57,000 BTC. Additionally, if Bitcoin rebounds to $71,000, $2.6 billion worth of shorts will be liquidated, potentially driving the price higher.

With Bitcoin’s exchange supply at a three-year low, indicating a supply crunch, the bull cycle might still have momentum. This makes the $100,000 target attainable if favorable economic conditions persist. However, the current sideways action has led to a “boring” market sentiment.

Also Read: Bitcoin Whales Buy The Dips With BTC Exchange Supply At 3-Year Low