The Bitcoin price (BTC) movement was largely dominated by sideways movement in the last 30 days, despite developments around spot Bitcoin ETFs and key crypto lawsuits like that of Grayscale. Yet, on chain data shows that the current BTC trading pattern shows an inherent strength in terms of the trader lifecycle.
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According to Glassnode data, the amount of supply last active in the range of last 6 months to 1 year based on 1-day moving average has currently reached a 6 month high level. Interestingly, the spike in the last active supply for Bitcoin began just around the time when Grayscale won against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the lawsuit over converting the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to spot Bitcoin ETF.
When it comes to the BTC supply last active from over 6 months, a peak in this metric is generally associated with active volume spike during either of two types of events, bull market scenario or sell off environment.
The Grayscale lawsuit victory followed what was a historic judgment in the altcoin space in the form of the XRP lawsuit Summary Judgment. This was amid a spree of large financial institutions of the likes of Blackrock flocking to the US SEC seeking approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. While these developments kept the investor sentiment positive, it remains to be seen if the United States macroeconomic environment would help keep the momentum going.
Ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 19-20, 2023, respondents on the CME FedWatch Tool recorded 98% chance of the likelihood that the Fed will not change the interest rates from the current target rate of 525-550 bps. Over the last two years, the central bank’s aggressive rate hiking measures meant Bitcoin showcasing high volatility around the FOMC decision. However, the trend has slowdown since the beginning of 2023 around optimism around monetary policy easing with rate cuts or pauses.
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