Bitcoin price carries on with its consolidation, seemingly ‘muted,’ with little to no action on the upside. However, bears are still beating hard on the lower range support, slightly below $30,000 – a situation that is worrisome among BTC bulls who have been eyeing a breakout to $35,000 and $35,000 following the climb from $25,000 to highs around $31,476 around mid-June.
Bitcoin price has been stuck in a range channel since mid-June. Support on the lower range is now reinforced by the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (in purple) at $29,839 while the stubborn resistance sits at $31,400.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, moving horizontally below the mean line (0.00) implies that Bitcoin price lacks momentum to move either up or down. In other words, bearish and bullish forces are relatively equal and canceling out, leaving Bitcoin in a quagmire situation.
While other indicators like the Money Flow Index (MFI) appear to be leaning on the bullish side of things, the shrinking volatility makes it difficult to sustain an uptrend.
Bulls are slowly losing grip considering Bitcoin price has been entwined with the range channel’s support since Monday. They must hold onto the 200-day EMA support at all costs, otherwise, they risk a sell-off to $28,000 where more buyers could create more liquidity as they buy the dip.
On the flip side, a minor push above $30,000 could be the assurance buyers need to rally behind BTC for the anticipated breakout out of the channel. However, bulls must be ready to deal with the confluence resistance at $30,252 formed by the 50-day EMA (in red) and the 100-day EMA (in blue)—and subsequently the seller congestion at $31,000.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the sluggish price action witnessed for several weeks now could soon pave the way for a volatility period. Bitcoin’s 14-day price range rose to 6.38% in the last seven days and Glassnode underscores that with around 5.6% of all trading hours staying in the lower range of this value – BTC might see movement on either side in just a few days.
Chinese crypto news reporter Colin Wu of Wu Blockchain highlighted on Friday during the Asian session that “1,000 BTC options are about to expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.41, the biggest pain point is $30,250, and the nominal value is $630 million,” which might worsen the delicate the quagmire keeping Bitcoin price suspended marginally below $30,000.
If Bitcoin price fails to recover above $30,250 by the time the options expire, overhead pressure may dampen the market even further. Holding Bitcoin above the range channel might not be viable, with declines to $28,000 likely to take shape.
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