Cardano ETF Approval Odds Jumps as Grayscale Files Amended S-1 With SEC

Cardano ETF approval odds have regained new heights thanks to recent positive developments surrounding it. This comes as Grayscale submitted an amended S-1 form for the product with the US SEC.

Cardano ETF Approval Odds Spikes Amid Grayscale Filing

According to Polymarket data, the probability of a Cardano ETF receiving approval has climbed to 87%. This marks an 11% increase in just one week. 

This represents a sharp rebound after the market fluctuated throughout August. At one point, the ADA ETF approval odds dropped to 75%, down from July’s 89%, before bouncing back to the current level.

Analysts believe the momentum shift comes directly from Grayscale’s decision to advance its regulatory push. On August 29, the firm submitted an amended S-1 form with the SEC for its proposed Cardano ETF. This follows its earlier 19b-4 application. 

If approved, the fund would be listed on NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol GADA and track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index. The ETF will hold ADA directly, avoiding leverage and derivatives. Custody services will be provided by Coinbase Custody, ensuring institutional-grade security. 

This mirrors Grayscale’s existing strategy for other crypto trusts. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart confirmed that Grayscale has also filed similar paperwork for a Polkadot ETF. He also noted that these submissions are not entirely new filings. This reinforces the company’s long-term commitment to crypto ETFs.

SEC Delay on ETF Approvals Continues

This move follows the SEC’s delay of a final decision on the Cardano ETF. Originally expected by August 27, the ruling on the product has now been pushed back to October 26, 2025.

The proposal was first lodged in February by NYSE Arca. They are seeking to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Cardano ETF under its commodity-based trust rule. Since then, multiple amendments have been filed, and the SEC has only just opened the matter to public comment.

This extension aligns with broader regulatory caution. Bloomberg’s Seyffart noted that the SEC is currently handling 96 separate filings for crypto ETFs. This is the largest number of applications the agency has ever received.

However, recent regulatory changes suggest the approval could come really soon. For example, the SEC clarified that certain staking activities are not considered securities. This has further strengthened its project crypto push as it aims to create a more friendly environment for crypto.

While awaiting regulatory clarity, Cardano itself has been gaining traction in the market. In one of Grayscale’s “Top 10 Crypto Assets by Weekly Returns,” Cardano ranked third. They ranked just behind top-performing XRP and Stellar. This suggests a bullish momentum for the token.

The rise in approval odds and Grayscale’s persistence suggest it is just a matter of time before the product launches. October has been highlighted as a key month due to the deadline for the commission decision.