Crypto Market Braces as Wall Street Sees Rise in Nonfarm Payrolls

Wall Street estimates Nonfarm payrolls in the United States to come in at 50K in September, up from 22K in August. Moreover, the US unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Crypto market participants brace for volatility amid job growth and a significant drop in Fed rate cut odds in December.

Wall Street Estimates on Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate for September on November 20. This jobs data release could significantly impact Bitcoin price and the crypto market direction, as it is the first key jobs data following the 43-day government shutdown.

Wall Street estimated that Nonfarm payrolls would rise by 50K in September, reinforcing signs of sluggish labor market conditions. The US labor market has weakened over the past few months, but Fed officials remain divided on whether to implement another Fed rate cut amid rising inflation concerns.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, keeping the annual rate unchanged at 4.7%. Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market could pare recent gains if the jobs data show a strengthening labor market.

Meanwhile, the October jobs report was cancelled amid a lack of survey data due to the longest government shutdown in history. November’s employment report is set for release on December 16. Earlier, the BLS estimated that about 911,000 fewer jobs were added over the 12 months through March than previously reported.

“The labor market is clearly slowing, the assumption is that the trend is going to continue,” Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University, told Reuters. “We’re going to be scratching the bottom for a while, but I don’t think we are going into recession.”

Bitcoin, Crypto Market Waver Amid Drop in Fed Rate Cut Odds to 33%

Markets trimmed bets on a Fed rate cut in December in response to a hawkish outlook by Jerome Powell and other Fed officials. The FOMC Meeting minutes also showed that many Fed officials think it is appropriate to keep rates unchanged in December.

The CME FedWatch tool now shows 33% odds of another 25 bps Fed rate cut, falling from 50.1% probability a few days ago. The Fed officials remain divided due to concerns about inflation. Also, US President Donald Trump aims to replace Fed Chair before Christmas, raising concerns in the crypto market.

The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened above 100 on Thursday, hitting a six-month high as investors closely watch the key jobs report. Also, the 10-year Treasury yield stays above 4.1% amid increasing bets that the Fed will not cut rates next month.

Bitcoin price has pared some gains over the past 24 hours, with the price currently trading at $91,615. The 24-hour low and high are $88,526 and $93,025, respectively. Top altcoins ETH and XRP are trading at $3,000 and $2.11, respectively.