Bitcoin Realized Cap Hits New ATH, Will BTC Price Follow?

Bitcoin (BTC) price eyes a parabolic rally past $100,000 after the Realized Capitalization soared to an all-time high, a surge that has always preceded a strong upward trend. The rise in this metric comes as BTC defends $95,000, after President Trump’s relief on auto tariffs fuelled a recovery across financial markets.

BTC value today stands at $94,930 with a daily high of $95,443, as the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index indicates that traders are in a state of “greed.” A deep dive into the Realized Cap and 2 other key metrics suggests that a major BTC price increase is looming.

BTC Price Eyes Rally As Realized Capitalization Hits ATH

According to CryptoQuant data shared by analyst Carmelo, BTC’s Realized Cap, an on-chain metric used to measure the price at which Bitcoin was last moved on-chain, has reached a record high of $882 billion. Per Carmelo, the surge indicates retail and institutional investors have re-entered the market and anticipate gains in the near term.

As the chart above shows, a rise in the Realized Cap metric is often followed by a notable increase in the BTC price. Per Carmelo, history will likely rhyme, and an explosion is on the horizon. He opined,

“Although we have seen progressive gains since April 9, the price has not yet exploded significantly in a very short time frame, which is a typical characteristic of Bitcoin. However, if these accumulations continue, it is highly likely that such an explosion will occur.”

Interestingly, this is not the only on-chain metric hinting towards a BTC price explosion happening soon. The supply of BTC held in profit has surged past 90%, which analyst Darkfost noted has previously caused a euphoric phase, and the king coin is getting close to this level.

Meanwhile, popular analyst Ali Charts noted that in the last two weeks, whales have accumulated 43,100 BTC valued at nearly $4 billion, an indication that these large addresses may be positioning for a price uptrend. This further supports the argument that a BTC breakout past $100,000 is looming and may happen soon.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis – Key Support & Resistance Levels to Watch

BTC price trades within a giant falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, and is teasing a breakout above the upper trendline, a move that could spark a 21% gain towards an all-time high of $115,000. The RSI line, which is tipping north and has reached a value of 66, supports the likelihood of a breakout happening, as bullish momentum surges.

However, for a bullish Bitcoin price forecast to play out, BTC needs to clear several hurdles. The first is resistance at $95,680, a level that also marks the upper descending trendline of the falling wedge. If it makes a decisive close above this resistance, it then needs to clear $99,690 for a run up to $115,000.

If this bullish thesis fails, and traders who bought during the rally decide to take profits and spark a downtrend, BTC price faces support at $92,000, with a breach of this level set to drag the price down to $81,000. If this happens, the market sentiment will likely fall back into “fear” and invalidate the likelihood of a “euphoric phase” for Bitcoin happening in the near term.