Ethereum Price Rebound Likely as 1.09M ETH Leaves Exchange Amid Oversold Conditions

Over the past nine days, roughly 1.09 million Ethereum (ETH) have exited centralized exchanges. Ethereum price trades around $2,600, making the recent outflow worth $2.9 billion. Moreover, the RSI of ETH/BTC has hit oversold on the monthly time frame for the first time. These signs, and many more, suggest that the downtrend will end, and a recovery rally will begin.

1.09M ETH Exits Exchanges, is Ethereum Price Bounce Next?

Ethereum price has bounced off the $2,500 support level and is up 7% in the past two days. This bounce will likely extend in the coming days since 1.09 million ETH worth $2.9 billion has left centralized exchanges since February 2, according to Sanitment. Typically, when supply leaves centralized entities, it is considered bullish since it reduces the overhang and the available selling pressure.

In addition, many buy signals are flashing for the Ethereum price, both from an on-chain and technical perspective, indicating the end of its bearish outlook.

365-day MVRV Flashes Buy Signal for ETH

For example, the 365-day MVRV ratio, which tracks the average profit/loss of investors who purchased ETH in the past year, is in the opportunity zone, hinting at a reversal. This metric hit -17.48% on February 7, indicating the average loss of investors who purchased ETH a year ago.

The last time the 365-day MVRV dropped below -13.80% was in September 2024. Ethereum price rallied 88% in the next four months to $4,000. If history rhymes, ETH is due for an explosive recovery rally.

While the on-chain metrics are clearly indicating a bullish outlook, let’s explore what technicals are noting.

ETH/BTC RSI Hits Oversold Levels

ETH/BTC’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit the oversold level for the first time in its history. Due to Bitcoin’s explosive move above $100K coupled with Ethereum’s lackluster performance throughout 2024 and 2025, the ETH/BTC ratio has continued to plummet and trades currently at 0.02.

This significant development suggests that the sentiment surrounding ETH/BTC has reached an all-time low (ATL) and typically these phases do not last for long. A bounce in Ethereum price while BTC stagnates or drops could improve this ratio.

Key Ethereum Price Levels to Watch

Ethereum price currently trades around $2,700, up 7% in the past two days. If the ongoing recovery picks up steam, the next key but minor hurdles include the previous month and previous week VWAPs at $2,683 and $3,306, respectively.

Clearing these two blockades will allow ETH’s value to scale up to $4,000, the next critical psychological level to book profits. With bullish Ethereum price predictions, investors can expect the altcoin to revisit ATH of $4,868 and, in some cases, go beyond and set up a new one at $5,000.