Ripple (XRP) Price Eyes $3 Rebound as CME Group Signals 99% Chance of Fed Rate Pause

Ripple (XRP) price surged to $2.24 after data from CME Group revealed that investors anticipate that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. A dovish Fed policy could spark a rally for XRP price, and possibly precede a move towards $3.

Ripple (XRP) Climbs 18% to Reclaim $2.24 as Market Recovery Phase Begins

Ripple (XRP) price surged to $2.24 on Thursday, marking its highest opening price this week. As the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures indicated easing inflation, traders are betting on a Fed rate pause. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now suggests a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in its upcoming March 21 meeting.

Despite the bullish macroeconomic backdrop, Ripple price faces resistance near $2.50, requiring a substantial increase in trading volumes to maintain its upward momentum. If market inflows intensify, XRP could extend its rally toward the critical $3 mark.

Ripple (XRP) Traders Expect Fresh Inflows as CME Group Signals 99% Chance of Fed Rate Pause

Ripple (XRP) has experienced a notable price recovery over the past 48 hours, responding to a series of positive macroeconomic developments. On Thursday, XRP opened trading at $2.24, marking an 18% rise from Tuesday’s local low of $1.90.

The recent price uptick coincided with growing optimism over a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a cooling inflation trend in the U.S. economy.

February’s CPI data revealed that the inflation rate eased to 2.8%, down from 3% in January, and below the anticipated 2.9%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose just 0.2%, significantly lower than January’s 0.5% increase.

Market sentiment suggests that these inflation figures have alleviated concerns sparked by last Friday’s disappointing U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which initially fueled recession fears.

In response, traders are shifting their outlook toward a prolonged period of steady interest rates, boosting investor confidence across risk assets like XRP.

Taking these developments into account, CME Group’s FedWatch tool—widely used by institutional investors—now signals a near-certain 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates in its March 21 decision.

Should this outlook hold, crypto markets, including XRP, could see renewed capital inflows as traders who previously exited amid NFP uncertainty re-enter positions, anticipating a sustained bullish trend.

XRP Derivative Market Analysis

The latest XRP derivatives data from Coinglass indicates an emerging bullish sentiment, as key metrics suggest increasing trader confidence. Open interest has risen by 3.48% to $3.05 billion, signalling growing commitment among traders to their existing positions.

More so, options open interest surged 10.69% to $1.37 million, reflecting a stronger institutional appetite for leveraged exposure to XRP price movements.

While spot volume has dipped slightly by 3.96% to $8.35 billion, the increase in open interest suggests that traders are positioning for a potential upside rather than exiting the market.

Further reinforcing the bullish case, Binance’s long/short ratio for XRP/USDT accounts stands at 2.49, while OKX traders show a similar bias with a 2.14 long/short ratio.

This indicates that more traders are opening long positions in anticipation of further gains. Additionally, liquidation data shows that longs have outperformed shorts in recent liquidation events, with $4.25 million in long liquidations versus $4.61 million in short liquidations over 24 hours.

This suggests that bears are losing control, potentially setting the stage for an XRP breakout above its $2.50 resistance level.

XRP Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $2.60 as Market Recovers from Sell-off Phase

XRP price is attempting to recover after a steep 27.53% correction, stabilizing above $2.24 as buyers defend the early recovery gains. According to market volume data, the XRP price rebound comes as volume contracts following a 1.63 billion token selloff, signaling that sellers are losing momentum.

The recent 18.88% price surge over two days indicates renewed bullish pressure, with XRP attempting to reclaim the $2.34 resistance level, which aligns with the 20-day EMA.

A successful breakout above this threshold could pave the way for a rally toward $2.60, where the upper Bollinger Band currently sits, acting as the next major resistance zone.

On the downside, failure to hold above $2.24 could reignite selling pressure, with the lower Bollinger Band at $1.92 emerging as key support.

However, the long/short ratio data from Binance and OKX, showing a strong bullish bias, suggests market sentiment favors the upside.

If momentum sustains, XRP could push toward $2.76, a key level from recent highs. However, a rejection at $2.34 may delay further gains, leaving the market range-bound before a decisive breakout.