US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterates the need to raise interest rates after a hawkish pause in June. A strong labor market and inflation remaining above the FOMC target rate will compel the Federal Reserve to continue its rate hike strategy. The ADP employment report on Thursday caused a sudden fall in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins price. Traders now brace for nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data due today as the market forecast of 225K and 3.6% points to a tighter US market.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said inflation is still higher than the 2% target and ECB can continue to hike interest rates in 2024. The inflation rate is 5.5% currently for the EU. In addition, she pointed out that economic growth in the region can pick pace in 2024-2025, estimating growth at around 0.9% in 2023.
The macro outlook remains challenging for Bitcoin, with treasury yields rising rapidly and volatility returning to the crypto and stock markets. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a nearly 90% probability of a 25 bps rate hike during the July FOMC meeting.
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The crypto market fell after the US jobs data on Thursday and analysts expect a similar action on Friday as US labor remains tight. JPMorgan argues SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETF to unlikely benefit crypto market, but BlackRock CEO Larry Fink thinks Bitcoin ETF can democratize crypto and revolutionize finance.
Bitcoin ETF applicants meeting the US SEC next week to discuss approval, required rule changes, and other crucial aspects.
Crypto analysts Michael van de Poppe and Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin dominance pull back in the short term after hitting higher historically. It will bring a recovery in altcoins. In fact, crypto asset inflows for two consecutive weeks and the monthly MACD turning green indicate a positive outlook for Bitcoin price.
BTC price trades at $30142, with 24-hour low and high of $29777 and $31269, respectively. ETH price currently trades at $1860, down 4% in the past 24 hours. Read more on the crypto market outlook for H2.
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