Crypto exchange Mt. Gox has already started the long-awaited repayment process with the creditors receiving the payout in BTC and BCH. The $9 billion payout by Mt. Gox has already sent jitters across the crypto market with BTC price tanking all the way to $53,500 on Monday. Additionally, the German govt. Bitcoin sell-off has led to further woes.
While the market worries about the Bitcoin sell-off coming from Mt. Gox creditors, let’s take a look into the possible scenario with the selling.
Popular market analyst Alex Kruger has explained what can happen from the macro perspective if Mt. Gox creditors liquidate their Bitcoins. As per Kruger, Mt. Gox has a total of 141,000 BTC to distribute, out of which 95,000 bitcoins would be released within the next 90 days to creditors who have opted for an early distribution along with a 10% haircut. Kruger provides a further breakdown of the 95,000 Bitcoin distribution as follows:
Based on these, Kruger has made a few assumptions as to what could be the market impact of this selling. The analyst predicts that 30% of the 85,000 BTC hitting the market would be available for selling i.e. 25,000 BTC.
Also Read: Bitstamp To Fast-Track Mt Gox BTC Repayments To Creditors
Later, he considers that creditors would sell 30% in a single transaction instead of over time. furthermore, he also assumes that Germany might sell its remaining Bitcoin holding of 23,700 BTC in one single transaction.
Based on this, Kruger calculates that there could be a max 10.5% drop in the Bitcoin price from the current levels. Thus, we can see the Bitcoin price falling maximum within a range of $47,000-$48,000.
Let’s run some numbers.
Gox has a total of 141K to be distributed, with 95K to be distributed within 90 days (going to those who elected to receive an early distribution in exchange for a 10% haircut).
Of those 95K:
– 20K going to credit funds
– 10K going to a NZ exchange…— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 8, 2024
After falling to a low of $53,500, the Bitcoin price has staged a decent recovery and is currently trading 3.4% up at $57,330. This bounce back suggests that the temporary selling pressure on Bitcoin has subsided for the near term.
On the other hand, Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see strong demand during the recent correction with inflow on an upward trajectory.
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