Will Bitcoin and Altcoins Crash As Japan’s Yen Carry Trade Unwind Fears Peak?

Bitcoin and altcoin investors are closely watching the developments in the Japanese market as core consumer inflation races by 3.2% in January and could push the central bank to announce rate hikes very soon. This has to the feats of unwinding of Japan’s yen carry trade, similar to August 2024, that triggered a major crypto market crash.

Bitcoin Price Action Moving Ahead

Bitcoin price is up by 1.3% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading at $98,388.43 with its market cap at $1.95 trillion. For a long time, BTC has been flirting in the range of $90,000-$100,000 with no clear directional move on either side.

Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has identified a critical level Bitcoin must hold to maintain its bullish market structure. According to the analyst, Bitcoin needs to secure a weekly close above approximately $97,000 to continue using the higher low as a support level.

Additionally, there has been a sharp drop in the BTC demand over the past two months. Speaking on the development, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno stated: “If Bitcoin hasn’t rally to fresh highs is because demand has cooled down significantly since December”.

Altcoins to See Some Bounce Back?

Following a strong rally in 2024, the altcoins market has witnessed a strong pullback in early 2025. However, following the recent consolidation, market analysts are hopeful of a rally moving ahead.

Crypto analyst Patrick H has highlighted renewed activity in the altcoin market, pointing to signs of potential growth. According to the analyst, altcoins are showing signs of life as the horizontal channel pattern, introduced last week, continues to play out effectively.

Patrick noted that the market has respected both the support and resistance levels of the channel, reinforcing the pattern’s validity. A breakout from the horizontal channel, he added, would serve as the first signal of bullish momentum for altcoins, prompting traders to watch the market closely for further developments.

Japan’s Yen Carry Trade Unwinding

Discussions around Japanese Yen Carry Trade unwinding have been going on recently as Japan’s inflation accelerates more than expected which could push the Bank of Japan to increase rates even further. According to the ministry, overall inflation rose to 4% from 3.6%, marking its highest level in two years. Taro Saito, head of economic research at NLI Research Institute said:

“Japan’s core inflation is likely to remain around 3% in the first half of this year. The BOJ will keep mulling the timing of its next rate hike, rather than worrying about whether they need it.”

As Japanese Yen gains strength, the USD/JPY pair is hitting fresh lows slipping under 150 levels. Analyst James Stanley warns of potential bear traps as USD/JPY breaks the critical 150.00 level. He notes that if further evidence emerges suggesting the U.S. dollar has peaked, it could provide greater motivation for carry trades to unwind.

Speaking on this development, veteran economist Peter Schiff noted: “The yield on the 10-year JGB is now 1.45%. The dollar/yen is about to break below 1.50. The fact that it is happening as gold continues to make new record highs is a warning sign that few have noticed. We are poised on the cusp of a financial crisis of epic proportions”.