Can Anthropic Reach a $4 Trillion Valuation by December 31?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 89% while Yes trades at 11%.
• This market has recorded $452.5K in trading volume, with $5.2K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $13.6K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

Overview

Anthropic may be heading for one of the largest stock market listings on record. A $4 trillion valuation, however, remains a long shot.

Yes shares in the Polymarket contract trade at 11 cents. No is priced at 89 cents. The market has attracted $452,500 since opening, with $7,100 traded over the past day.

Anthropic was valued at $965 billion in its May funding round. Shares have since traded at an implied valuation of up to $1.5 trillion on secondary markets, according to Business Insider. Even from that higher figure, the company would have to gain another $2.5 trillion to reach the market target.

The word “high” matters here. Anthropic does not need to finish the year worth $4 trillion. Its valuation only has to reach that figure once during the contract period.

How Polymarket will measure Anthropic’s valuation

While Anthropic remains private, the market rules use the NPM Price published by Nasdaq Private Market. Any reading of $4 trillion or more before the end of December would settle the contract as Yes.

The calculation changes if Anthropic completes its IPO. Polymarket would then include the valuation set by the official listing price and its market capitalization during regular trading hours.

This gives Yes two possible routes. Anthropic could reach $4 trillion on the private market before listing, or its shares could trade high enough after the IPO.

A funding announcement or press report would not settle the market by itself unless it is reflected in the data sources named in the rules.

Anthropic’s revenue is rising much faster than expected

The bullish case begins with Anthropic’s sales. Its annual revenue run rate passed $65 billion at the end of July, Reuters reported. That was up from $47 billion in May and about $9 billion at the end of 2025.

Anthropic had previously expected to produce at least $10.9 billion in second-quarter revenue. It also projected its first quarterly operating profit at $559 million.

Those figures explain why investors have repriced the company so quickly. In February, a funding round valued Anthropic at $380 billion. Three months later, its Series H round raised the figure to $965 billion.

A $4 trillion valuation would still be difficult to justify using present revenue. Based on the latest $65 billion run rate, investors would be paying more than 61 times annualised sales. That leaves little room for weaker growth, higher computing costs or a poor reception from public-market investors.

Anthropic expects revenue to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2028, according to Reuters. At the top of that range, a $4 trillion valuation would equal about 20 times projected 2028 revenue. Investors would be paying today for growth that may take another two years to arrive.

A strong IPO may still fall well short

Anthropic filed confidentially for a US IPO in June. Some of its investors reportedly expect the company to seek a valuation above $2 trillion, with estimates stretching as high as $3 trillion.

Those numbers are extraordinary, but neither would settle the $4 trillion contract. A $2 trillion debut would need to double after listing. Even at $3 trillion, Anthropic shares would have to rise another 33%.

The market is far more confident about the lower thresholds. Polymarket gives Anthropic a 70.5% chance of reaching $2 trillion, compared with 20% at $3 trillion and 11% at $4 trillion.

Anthropic’s revenue growth has already beaten earlier projections, which helps explain why Yes is not at zero. The final IPO price will give traders a much better idea of whether $4 trillion is reachable. Until then, the odds show that most expect a huge listing, just not one that puts Anthropic among the world’s most valuable companies within its first few months.