Can Bitcoin’s Price reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 72% while Yes trades at 28%.
• This market has recorded $325.4K in trading volume, with $55.8K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $42.2K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

Overview

Bitcoin has rebounded to around $64,100 over the past day but prediction market traders on Polymarket are still leaning heavily towards No in the market asking whether it will reach $80,000 this year.

Yes shares trade at 29 cents, giving the outcome a 29% implied probability. No is priced at 71 cents. Recent activity has been fairly strong, with $62,600 changing hands over the past day and $325,300 traded since the market opened.

This specific event contract on Polymarket uses Binance’s BTC/USDT pair for its settlement criteria; it is set to settle as Yes if a one-minute candle records a high of $80,000 or more by 11:59 PM ET on December 31.

The most important key detail is that Bitcoin only needs to touch the target. It does not have to close above $80,000 or remain there.

Bitcoin’s chart still lacks direction

BTC needs to gain close to 25% from its current price to reach the target. That would not be unusual for Bitcoin over four months, although its chart has yet to show the start of such a move.

Barchart’s August 18 data places Bitcoin’s 20-day moving average at $64,149 and its 50-day average at $63,441. With BTC trading between those levels, neither buyers nor sellers have taken firm control.

The momentum readings tell much the same story. Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index is currently near 50, comfortable away from both overbought and oversold territory. The 14-day Average Directional Index is below 15, signals to a market with little trend strength.

Bitcoin has also struggled to stay near the $67,500 mark during its latest recovery. A clean break through the $65,000 to $65,500 area would put the 100-day moving average, currently around $68,900, back in play.

The larger obstacle is near $75,200, where the 200-day moving average sits. Bitcoin would have to recover that level before making a serious attempt at $80,000.

At the moment, support is building around $62,500. If that gives way, BTC could revisit $60,000 and the required move to $80,000 would rise to roughly 33%.

ETF outflows have weighed on Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s recovery has also been held back by uneven institutional demand. Citi cut its 12-month BTC forecast from $112,000 to $82,000 in July after continued outflows from Bitcoin investment products.

The bank had previously assumed that ETFs would receive $10 billion in net inflows this year. It reduced that estimate to zero after the products lost $3.3 billion during the first half of 2026.

Citi’s new forecast still leaves room for Bitcoin to cross $80,000, but its 12-month window stretches well beyond the Polymarket deadline. Traders have only until the end of December.

Regulation has not provided much support either. The Senate began its recess without moving the Clarity Act forward, while the SEC postponed a meeting that was expected to discuss fundraising rules for crypto companies.

Higher yields leave Bitcoin with little macro support

US Treasury yields rose on August 18 after renewed tensions between the United States and Iran sent oil prices higher. Bitcoin and other risk assets often struggle when bond yields rise because investors can earn better returns from safer assets.

Rate cuts also look unlikely this year. Most economists in a recent Reuters poll expected the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% through December.

Bitcoin could still reach $80,000 if ETF buying returns and the price clears $65,500. For now, it remains trapped close to its short-term averages. Polymarket traders want to see the breakout before paying more than 29 cents for Yes.