Will US x Iran Have an Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

• Polymarket is pricing the 14-day effective ceasefire between the US and Iran at 95%, while No is at 5% probability. 
• The market has a lifetime volume of $15.7 million, and roughly $221,452 in 24-hour volume, as of writing. 
• The open interest stands at $110,800, with the market expected to resolve on August 31, 2026. 

Overview

The “US-Iran Effective Ceasefire By…?” contract is showing a possible ceasefire running to the end of the month, according to Polymarket. The August 31 market currently trades at 95 cents for “Yes” and 5 cents for “No,” while the earlier ladder, August 14, trades at 95 cents and 6 cents, respectively. 

As of August 2, the August 31 Yes ladder traded at 48% probability, seeing a massive doubling in prices for the past week following President Trump’s orders for the US military not to strike Iran following Hormuz talks. 

The Polymarket contract has seen volume inflows of over $15.7 million since its open on July 15, with the August 31 ladder contributing $1.5 million in lifetime volume. 

The Contract Resolution Details 

The contract, while confusing to understand at first, is simple once you read the resolution rules. Simply, the market will resolve to Yes if there is any continuous 14-day stretch, starting before August 31, in which the United States does not carry out a qualifying military action against Iran.

According to Polymarket rules, the qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. 

The naval blockade, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, and naval and artillery fire do not count to this market, hence the huge swing to Yes holders. 

As of August 11, the US military has yet to strike Iran, marking the 11th straight day without a strike. This is a clear indication of why the market is pricing the August 14 and August 31 contracts so similarly, since by Friday, if no qualifying military strike is reported, both markets will resolve to Yes. 

What Could Still Break the Streak

Despite the high possibility of an effective ceasefire, there are still several factors that could break the 11-day streak. First, Trump confirmed that the pause will be broken if Iran backs away from their talks. 

Notwithstanding, over the weekend, several provocations were recorded, including a tanker operated by ADNOC being attacked in the Strait, the Houthis claiming a strike on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery, and the Iranian foreign minister confirming that Iran was not in direct talks with the US to open the waterway.

On August 9, President Trump said that the US was in “low-key” negotiations with Iran amid ongoing tensions and signalled he would lean on economic pressure and the blockade rather than another round of airstrikes. Given the contract only counts direct US military action such as air strikes, Trump’s statements semi-confirmed that the effective ceasefire could complete the 14-day streak. 

Crypto Prices Remain Put Despite Ceasefire

While the ceasefire promises a possible end to the conflict, crypto markets have barely moved or reacted similarly to this market. Oil remains the key driver that could affect crypto and Bitcoin, and with Iran still maintaining its position in not opening the Strait, oil is expected to continue its climb.

On Monday, WTI Crude Oil Futures closed 5% up to $82.13, while Bitcoin closed 1.44% lower at $63,911, handing back its weekend gains after a positive climb to over $65,000. While the contract may close Yes if the two adversaries halt strikes for 14-days, the blockade in the Strait remains the key factor for global assets. 

On Polymarket, the Strait of Hormuz opening market by August 31 is still low (~4%, while a separate market of the US announcing an end to the blockade by August 31 sits at 40%. Until one of those moves, the energy premium weighing on risk assets stays put, with July CPI due August 12 the next test.