Carlos Alcaraz US Open 2026 Prediction Market Odds: Will He Win?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 73% while Yes trades at 27%.
• This market has recorded $927.2K in trading volume, with $69.3K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $119.7K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on September 13, 2026

As of August 26, the Carlos Alcaraz US Open 2026 prediction market event contract gives the Spaniard a 31% chance of retaining his title. Polymarket traders have him as the favourite ahead of Alexander Zverev at 22%; this event contract has traded over $11.1 million in total trading volume.

The prediction market odds on Carlos Alcaraz winning the Men’s US open are quite interesting; while Alcaraz currently leads at 31%, the probability is not as decisive, leaving the rest of the top 3 in the field collectively favoured to win the tournament. Polymarket’s resolution rules indicate this market is scheduled to end on September 13 and will resolve using the official US Open result.

The Carlos Alcaraz US Open odds put him nine percentage points ahead of Zverev, his nearest rival in the market. This position has partly benefitted from Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal because of a right knee injury. 

Carlos Alcaraz US Open 2026 Prediction 

The leading prediction odds on Carlos Alcaraz winning the US Open 2026 rests on a 24-3 career record at Flushing Meadows. Alcaraz won his first Grand Slam there in 2022 and returned to take the title again in 2025. His 22-3 record this season also shows why traders have kept him at the top of the market despite the injury break.

Sinner’s absence also improves the case for Carlos Alcaraz to win US Open 2026. While it does not guarantee a win and barely crosses 35% as of writing, it removes the player he beat in last year’s final. Zverev, Novak Djokovic and the rest of the field still give traders several alternatives; Novak’s contract has the highest volume with $845K although Alcaraz follows closely at $844K. 

On the downside, the most notable concern is fitness, Alcaraz has not played an official singles match since beating Otto Virtanen in Barcelona on April 14. A right wrist injury then forced him to withdraw before the second round. He later missed the French Open, Wimbledon, Toronto and Cincinnati before confirming his return for New York.

The ATP reports that this is the longest layoff of his career. His first singles match in more than four months will come in a best-of-five-set Grand Slam, with no competitive warm-up to show how his wrist will respond. Any Alcaraz US Open prediction must account for that lack of match practice.

Conclusion

The Carlos Alcaraz US Open 2026 prediction identifies him as the most likely individual champion, but not an odds-on winner. His past success in New York and Sinner’s withdrawal support the 31% price, but on the other hand, his injury and long absence explain why the probability remains below one-third.

The US Open prediction market odds therefore favour Alcaraz over every named rival, while favouring the wider field overall. Among current 2026 US Open tennis predictions, the overall sentiment is that Alcaraz leads, but his fitness will decide whether the price holds once singles play begins.