Can Ethereum’s Price dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?

• Polymarket prices NO shares at 81% while Yes trades at 19%.
• This market has recorded $337.3K in trading volume, with $54.1K traded in the past 24 hours.
• Liquidity currently stands at $40.2K, representing the available capital across the market.
• The market will resolve on January 1, 2027

Overview

Ethereum’s recovery has left the $1,750 target well below its current price, and Polymarket traders largely expect it to remain untouched.

No trades at 83% in the market asking whether Ethereum will dip to $1,750 before the end of 2026, compared with 17% for Yes. The contract has recorded $137,848 in 24-hour volume and holds $53,678 in liquidity. It is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.

With ETH trading near $2,454, reaching the target would require a decline of almost 29%. That is a substantial move, although the contract’s resolution rules leave more room for Yes than the headline odds might suggest.

Ethereum’s Rally Has Changed the Calculation

Ethereum traded close to $1,900 less than a week ago. It has since climbed above $2,400, gaining about 30% over seven days and widening the distance between the Ethereum price and the Polymarket target.

At $2,454, ETH is approximately $704 above $1,750. The price does not merely need to surrender the latest rally. It must also break below the range that supported it throughout much of August.

That explains why No is the clear favourite. The recent breakout has given Ethereum a larger cushion, while the wider crypto rally has improved sentiment across the market. Bitcoin’s advance into the upper $70,000s has also changed the outlook for contracts such as whether Bitcoin can reach $85,000 in 2026.

Ethereum ETF Inflows Support the No Side

Institutional demand has provided more than a technical boost. US spot Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $697 million in net inflows between August 17 and August 21.

Those flows arrived as ETH pushed through $2,000 and then $2,400. CoinGape’s earlier Ethereum breakout analysis noted that the move above $2,000 was accompanied by rising open interest and heavy short liquidations.

ETF demand matters because it can support the price once forced buying from liquidated short positions fades. If funds continue attracting capital and Bitcoin holds its recovery, Ethereum would need a new bearish catalyst to fall as far as $1,750.

The downside risk is that ETF flows can reverse. The increase in leveraged positions also leaves the market vulnerable to liquidations if ETH loses its newly established support levels.

ETH Momentum Is Cooling Near $2,500

Ethereum’s chart remains constructive, but the rally is beginning to slow.

The four-hour Relative Strength Index has fallen to 66.74 after reaching 93.56 during Friday’s breakout. A bearish MACD crossover has also appeared, suggesting that momentum is cooling as ETH approaches resistance around $2,500.

According to the latest Ethereum technical outlook, the first supports sit near $2,350 and $2,300, followed by $2,200. A pullback into that area would still leave Ethereum comfortably above the Polymarket threshold.

The picture becomes more serious if ETH loses $2,200 and then breaks below $2,000. An earlier Ethereum price forecast identified approximately $1,965 as a major support area. From there, $1,750 would be another 11% lower.

One Brief Dip Would Be Enough

Ethereum does not have to close a day, week or the year below $1,750 for Yes to win.

Under the Polymarket contract rules, any Binance ETH/USDT one-minute candle that records a final low of $1,750 or lower before 11:59 PM ET on December 31 would settle the market as Yes.

That distinction matters. A brief liquidation wick would count even if Ethereum recovered immediately afterward. With more than four months remaining, traders buying Yes are betting on a short-lived drawdown rather than necessarily expecting ETH to finish the year below $1,750.

The 83% No price is still defensible. Ethereum has strong ETF demand behind it, the wider market has improved, and several support levels stand between the current price and the target. However, 17% is not an unreasonable tail-risk price for a volatile asset in a touch market.

A break above $2,500 would make $1,750 look more remote. A loss of $2,200, followed by $1,965, would bring the downside contract back into serious consideration.