23,000 Bitcoin Options Will Expire Today, Where Will BTC Price Swing Next?

Once again, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged by 4% in the past 24 hours, edging closer to the $60,000 mark, coinciding with the upcoming weekly Bitcoin options expiry. Nevertheless, market indicators suggest that the derivatives market might experience a subdued summer period.

23,000 Bitcoin Options to Expire

Greeks.Live reports that 23,000 BTC options are on the verge of expiry, accompanied by a Put Call Ratio of 0.49. These options represent a notional value of $1.4 billion, with a Maxpain point positioned at $61,000.

Despite the recent listing of Bitcoin ETFs in Hong Kong failing to stimulate significant volume, outflows persist from US BTC ETFs. This market weakness has contributed to a decline in overall market confidence. Additionally, the Implied Volatility (IV) across major terms is on a downward trend, currently sitting at the average level observed during the winter bull market.

May 3 Options Data
23,000 BTC options are about to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $61,000 and a notional value of $1.4 billion.
330,000 ETH options are due to expire with a Put Call Ratio of 0.36, Maxpain point of $3,000 and notional value of $1… pic.twitter.com/mEA4PV98C3

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) May 3, 2024

Despite these challenges, there are indications of support, making the current buying sentiment a prudent choice. However, the prolonged period of sideways trading is unlikely to persist, with a potential absence of a rebound leading to downward pressure.

Bitcoin implied volatility has experienced a notable decrease since mid-April. Data from The Block’s Data Dashboard illustrates this trend, with the implied volatility of bitcoin at-the-money options declining from over 77% to under 60% across various expiration periods, including one-week, one-month, and multi-month expiries.

On the other hand, top lawmakers have recently joined the bandwagon urging the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to approve options for Bitcoin ETFs. In a communication addressed to SEC Chair Gary Gensler on Wednesday, Representatives Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) and Mike Flood (R-Neb) highlighted the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, which has since attracted billions of dollars in investments.

ETH Options Snapshot

Similar to Bitcoin, 330,000 ETH options are set to expire, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.36, a Maxpain point at $3,000, and a notional value totaling $1 billion. Similar to Bitcoin’s IV, the implied volatility of Ethereum ATM options has notably decreased since mid-April.

This decline in Ethereum IV suggests that traders anticipate a reduction in price volatility as they await regulatory clarity on Ethereum’s status in the U.S.