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Highlights
- Anthony Pompliano dismissed the notion that a Trump presidential victory would trigger a significant Bitcoin rally, emphasizing broader market dynamics and time as key factors.
- Pompliano identified two major sellers affecting Bitcoin prices: the German government offloading seized Bitcoin and BTC payouts to Mt. Gox creditors, highlighting the market's resilience.
- He noted that institutional investors are expected to increase their participation in the second half of the year, potentially driving further Bitcoin price surge.
Anthony Pompliano, a prominent crypto investor and analyst, addressed the common speculation that Donald Trump’s presidential victory could catalyze a significant Bitcoin (BTC) rally. The renowned investor ditched claims of Trump’s win triggering a BTC price surge. Moreover, he spotlighted other factors that could lead to a rebound in Bitcoin’s value.
Pompliano Ditches Notion Of Bitcoin Rally On Trump Win
According to Pompliano, the real catalyst for Bitcoin’s price movement isn’t tied to political outcomes but rather to broader market dynamics and time. Moreover, addressing regulatory concerns, Pompliano described the current U.S. political landscape as a mixed bag for Bitcoin and crypto.
While former President Donald Trump has positioned himself as a pro-Bitcoin candidate, Pompliano noted that his stance evolved over time. This mirrors the typical journey of many Bitcoin enthusiasts. Furthermore, Pompoliano highlighted the internal conflict in the Democratic party.
“What I do see is Democrats are kind of caught in between two things,” he remarked. He noted that some Democrats want to gain support of crypto voters, which is why they initiated bold steps like voting in favor of the SAB 121 revocation bill. However, a part of Democratic leaders including Senator Elizabeth Warren and President Joe Biden have maintained an anti-crypto stance.
Additionally, Pompliano noted that during every election, the public has voted for their wallets, which means crypto and Bitcoin in recent times. Hence, he expects crypto voters to vote for pro-crypto presidential and Senate candidates. This improves the odds for Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who have affirmed their pro-crypto stance repeatedly.
When asked if Bitcoin could rally upon Trump’s win, Pompliano emphasized that the ultimate catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth is time rather than political developments. Historical market patterns show that Bitcoin tends to perform well in the latter part of the year, particularly after the typically slow summer months. “When we get into September and beyond, that’s enough to get the price going back up,” he concluded.
Also Read: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testimony Sets Bitcoin (BTC) On Bullish Course
Remarks On German Government Selloff & Bitcoin ETFs
In the latest CNBC interview, Pompliano also discussed the current state of Bitcoin price. He noted that recent declines are primarily due to an imbalance between sellers and buyers. He identified two major sellers contributing to the current market situation. These include the German government offloading seized Bitcoin from a pirating website and BTC payout to Mt. Gox creditors.
Despite the German government sales, Pompliano emphasized that Bitcoin remains relatively illiquid. He stated that with most Bitcoin is held by individuals with a long-term investment horizon. This illiquidity means that even a small number of sellers can significantly impact prices.
“Prices go down because there are more sellers than buyers obviously. The question is who is selling,” Pompliano explained. He highlighted that the German company has already sold about $1.5 billion out of $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and that the market’s response to these sales has been surprisingly resilient.
“If I told you someone was going to sell billions of dollars and the price goes down just to $55,000, I think it is bullish. People are saying, look, Bitcoin is still pretty healthy,” he added. Discussing the illiquidity of Bitcoin, Pompliano pointed out that at the start of the year, over 70% of Bitcoin had not moved in over a year, indicating strong hands among holders. He expects this percentage to decrease as the bull market progresses.
Institutional Adoption Of BTC ETFs
Pompliano estimated that around 50-55% of Bitcoin is held by those with a 10-plus year time horizon. In addition, on the topic of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Pompliano acknowledged their influence on the market but downplayed their impact as a singular driving force.
He noted that retail investors currently dominate the market, making up 80% of flows. Institutional investors, according to Pompliano, are expected to increase their participation in the second half of the year. This could potentially drive further Bitcoin price surge.
This trend has already started with institutions like City State Bank, Northwest Capital Management, and Bank of New Hampshire. These firms recently disclosed investments in Blackrock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Grayscale’s GBTC ETF. Earlier, in the first quarter of FY24, a staggering $10 billion institutional influx was witnessed in to these ETFs.
Also Read: Institutional FOMO On Spot Bitcoin ETF As German Govt Continues BTC Sell-off
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