Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally To $200k By Year-End Despite Liquidity-Driven Bear Market

Recently, fresh panic gripped the market as Bitcoin defied support and crashed below $90,000. Amid the chaos, BitMEX Co-founder Arthur Hayes has shared his opinion on the current state of the crypto market and even predicted a Bitcoin rally by Year-end. 

Arthur Hayes Shares $200k Bitcoin Prediction Amid Crypto Crash

The BitMEX co-founder predicted in a blog post that the BTC price could still rally to $200,000 by year-end. He expects this to happen after the U.S. dollar liquidity adjustment plays out. However, he stated that the flagship crypto could further crash to the $80,000 to $85,000 range before then.

Arthur Hayes speculated that Bitcoin’s recent dip is due to a decline in USD liquidity, as evidenced by reduced inflows into ETFs and DATs. He noted that Bitcoin is an asset that operates on the expectation of future fiat supply, citing the U.S. tariff truce on April 9, 2025, as a key event supporting this theory. Before the truce, the crypto market had suffered greatly, with BTC slumping to a multi-month low amid the US-China trade war. 

After the tariff ceasefire, Bitcoin rallied by 21% and other assets, including Ether, followed suit. Also, Institutional investors piled into Bitcoin ETFs as USD liquidity returned. However, recently Hayes claimed that Bitcoin’s implied dollar liquidity has deteriorated, causing the premier cryptocurrency to slip from its all-time high of $126,000 to below $90,000.

It is worth mentioning that Arthur Hayes recently offloaded a significant portion of crypto holdings amid the crypto crash. As CoinGape reported, the BitMEX co-founder sold nearly $5 million in ETH, ENA, and AAVE even as he turned his attention to ZEC, which has been the standout performer over the past months.

The Market Outlook For BTC

Like Arthur Hayes, several market experts have also shared their views on the current state of the market and their speculations about Bitcoin’s next trajectory. One such expert is Benjamin Cowen, who, in an X post, speculated that Bitcoin will most likely dip to the $60,000 region by 2026.

Cowen based his predictions on the fact that Bitcoin is approaching a bear market, and a confirmation of the thesis will come when the token moves toward its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), as it has in previous bear cycles. However, unlike Cowen, other market experts, such as Ted Pillows, hold an optimistic view, explaining in an X post that Bitcoin often rallies the most when its ISM is at 50. Currently, it sits at 48.7, indicating that it’s not yet in a bear cycle.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s crash below $90,000 has sparked fear among investors, but others, like Gemini Co-Founder Cameron Winklevoss, believe this is a unique buying opportunity that may never come again. Interestingly, though, institutions and whales continue to buy the BTC dip despite failing market conditions and widespread FUD.