Bernstein Declares Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead, Predicts $1M Target for BTC

Bernstein has issued one of its strongest Bitcoin outlooks yet. The $800 billion asset manager says the long-standing four-year cycle that once defined Bitcoin’s peaks and corrections is officially broken.

Is Institutional Demand Redefining Bitcoin’s Cycle?

A part of the note shared by VanEck executive Matthew Sigel revealed the firm’s view. They believe Bitcoin has entered an elongated bull cycle supported by powerful institutional demand.

This pattern eliminates the halving-based rhythm that was followed by traders for more than 10 years. The asset manager also clarified that the recent drop in the market has not affected the long-term forward movement.

They cited consistent flows into ETFs as evidence of institutional buying overtaking market structure. This is in line with overall accumulation patterns by institutions, such as Strategy’s recent Bitcoin buy.

Despite a nearly 30% correction, ETF outflows remained under 5%. Bernstein says this shows institutions are treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a speculative trade.

The firm also raised its price targets following the new cycle call. Bernstein now expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026.

Is Bitcoin Becoming a More Stable Asset?

The projection extends further with a cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027. The firm still maintains its long-term goal $1 million for BTC price by 2033.

The firm’s analysts hold the view that stronger liquidity, better custody options and broader access by institutions will drive Bitcoin to this valuation. There is also evidence of rising Bitcoin demand after a recent crypto bill in Indiana.

The asset manager further emphasized the increasing effects of ETF inflows during strong market corrections. Bernstein described this market phase as the start of a structural trend. They said long-term buyers are offsetting retail fear during volatile periods.

This creates stronger price resilience and smaller drawdowns compared to past cycles. They added that traditional models cannot capture the new behavior because institutional flows react differently from retail trading patterns.

The report claims Bitcoin is now maturing into an asset with more predictable demand sources. This transformation could reduce the dominance of halving events on market timing.

Is Bitcoin Overtaking Traditional Store-of-Value Assets?

According to the firm, institutional products also help stabilize activity because they encourage longer holding periods. Bernstein expects these trends to strengthen as more institutions allocate more funds to BTC over the next few years. The firm emphasized that Bitcoin is still early in its adoption curve.