Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trading in Post-Halving Danger Zone, How Much Can It Retrace?

The world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin came under selling pressure earlier this week falling under $65,000 as the US GDP growth and business activity slowed down. As of press time, the Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at $64,256 with a market cap of $1,265 trillion.

Bitcoin price In Post-Halving ‘Danger Zone’

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has raised concerns about a potential “Danger Zone” following Bitcoin’s recent halving event. Drawing parallels to historical trends from 2016, Rekt Capital highlights a significant downside wick of approximately -11% that occurred around 21 days after the Halving, before a subsequent upward reversal.

With Bitcoin currently 6 days post-halving, attention is drawn to the possibility of downside volatility around the Re-Accumulation Range Low. Rekt Capital warns that if history repeats itself, this downside volatility could manifest over the next 15 days, termed the “Danger Zone.” While this period ends in 15 days, there remains a possibility of downside volatility at the $60600 Range Low in the meantime, according to historical analysis.

Bitcoin’s struggles persist as it faces rejection from the $65,600 resistance level, failing to establish it as support. Over several weeks, Bitcoin price has consistently shown downward movement towards the $60,600 liquidity pool, marked in green.

On the other hand, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff believes that $60,000 support won’t hold and that the Bitcoin price is heading for even lower levels.

Tech Stock Rout Puts Pressure on BTC

Bitcoin’s decline coincided with a downturn in major U.S. technology stocks, spurred by Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META) reporting a weaker-than-anticipated revenue forecast. Following Meta’s 15% decline in after-hours trading, industry giants Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) also experienced drops of 2% and 3%, respectively.

Traditionally, Bitcoin’s movement tends to mirror that of U.S. technology stocks, as both sectors are often seen as avenues for high-risk, high-return investments. However, this correlation had somewhat diminished earlier in the year, particularly with the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds in the U.S., which led to Bitcoin price outperformance.

However, amid the uncertain macro scenario, Bitcoin ETFs have registered net outflows showing a clear decelerating trend in the overall flows. Thursday’s GDP report, which fell short of expectations, has left the Fed in a tight spot, limiting its options going forward. The data’s implications have investors questioning the possibility of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024, pushing back expectations.