Bitcoin Transaction Volume Hits A New Low, BTC Price Drop Likely?

Despite the Bitcoin (BTC) price facing challenges in breaching the $70,000 mark decisively, other cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, are exhibiting significant momentum in the current market. On-chain metrics indicate a notable decline in trading activity for Bitcoin, signaling a possible impending price correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) Transactions Volumes See Major Drop

Bitcoin has hit an all-time low in transaction volume, signaling a significant shift in market dynamics. Both Bitcoin spot trading and on-chain transaction volume have plummeted, with interest now primarily focused on ETFs and derivatives. The BTC market is increasingly dominated by speculative demand through these financial instruments.

Interestingly, the seven-day trading volume for Bitcoin has dropped to under $14 billion, the levels last seen in 2023 when the BTC price was trading under $30,000.

Additionally, the chart highlights a significant decline in interest in Bitcoin trading and on-chain transaction volumes, with the latter being notably low. The network recorded only 722,000 BTC moved in seven days, a stark contrast to the 1.79 million BTC moved in October 2023, despite similar trading volumes and half the price.

Along with Bitcoin, the crypto market volumes have dropped to $50 billion, with funding rates only marginally positive, indicating low interest, reported 10x Research. Federal Reserve policy and inflation data are viewed as the critical factors that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

On June 5, the Bank of Canada might initiate a global rate-cutting cycle, potentially setting a precedent for the Fed. Additionally, for Bitcoin to rally, the US inflation report on June 12 would need to show a lower figure, around 3.3%.

Positive Indicators To Watch

While the spot trading activity remains lull, the Bitcoin derivatives market shows strength along with a strong interest in Bitcoin ETF.

Meanwhile, the approved Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen strong demand since their inception in January 2024. Over the past seven trading days, these ETFs have generated a total trading volume of $12 billion, comparable to Bitcoin’s spot volume on crypto exchanges. This indicates a growing preference for trading regulated and custodial exchange-traded funds over Bitcoin itself.

A significant drop in Bitcoin exchange balances suggests that whales are moving their coins off exchanges in anticipation of higher prices. Over the past month, 88,000 Bitcoins have been withdrawn, leaving only 2.5 million coins on exchanges, the lowest level since March 2018. This trend of exchange outflows began on May 15, aligning with the 45-day period following the quarter-end 13F filing requirement for U.S. registered investors managing over $100 million.