Bitcoin Bull Run Won’t Start Before September 2024, Here’s Why
Highlights
- Bitcoin's price is likely to remain capped for the next two months with consolidation ending this summer.
- Despite current bearish sentiment, there is aggressive buying of call options for September through December.
- Bitcoin miner holdings have dropped to the lowest level in 14 years due to high breakeven costs post halving.
According to the latest report from QCP Capital, Bitcoin price consolidation is likely to persist for the next two months, with the potential for the next bull run beginning in September 2024. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $64,362, down 0.4%, with a market cap of $1.268 trillion.
Bitcoin Price Capped for Near Term
As per the latest report from QCP Capital, the Bitcoin price remains capped in the short term. The trading activity shows large selling of the Bitcoin call options set to expire the next month.
However, QCP Capital expects significant bullish movement by the end of the year. Despite the current bearishness, there’s been aggressive buying for call options for September through the month of December. This clearly shows the expectations of a summer consolidation followed by major market movements around the US elections.
The report further states that miners have been under intense pressure to sell due to high breakeven prices amid the recent Bitcoin halving. This selling pressure is likely to continue ahead delaying the Bitcoin price recovery going ahead.
As a result of this selling, the miner Bitcoin holdings have dropped to their lowest levels in 14 years with total reserves dropping by more than 5,000 BTC since the beginning of the year.
Additionally, the market has been unsettled by the reports of a new large supply flood coming from the German government. Earlier this week, the German government sold 3,000 BTC with the plans to offload an additional 47,000 BTC in the coming days.
Lastly, not to forget, there’s been a continuous sell-off coming from the ETF market with the spot Bitcoin ETFs registering more than $500 million over the past week. This shows the lack of confidence among institutional players waiting on the sidelines for Bitcoin to reverse its trajectory.
Bullish Developments This Week
Furthermore, QCP Capital also stated that there’ve been several positive developments contributing to a bullish outlook for BTC this week. Some of the key factors include MicroStrategy‘s fresh purchase of 11,931 BTC valued at a staggering $800 million.
On the other hand, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has also shared an optimistic macroeconomic narrative explaining how the current Japanese banking crisis could trigger a BTC bull run.
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