Bitcoin Exchange Supply At 5-Year Low, Will BTC Price Surge?

The world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a phase of consolidation and has been flirting around $26,000 over the past few days. However, the recent SEC lawsuits on Binance and Coinbase have led to further outflows from the exchanges.

On-chain data provider Santiment reported that the Bitcoin exchange supply has dropped to a 5-year low as users choose self-custody amid the ongoing regulatory action. It reported:

“Bitcoin’s exchange supply has now fallen to its lowest level since February, 2018. Traders continue moving $BTC to self custody during the uncertainty surrounding #Binance & #Coinbase. As long as these #SEC lawsuits loom, this trend should continue”.

On the other hand, there’s also a clear shift in traders’ focus from Bitcoins to altcoins. On-chain data provider Santiment reports that Bitcoin’s social volume has been finally declining with altcoins like Ethereum, XRP Network, and Binance coin coming into the picture.

Will the Bitcoin Price Surge or Fall Further?

With Bitcoin showing no movement as of now, it’s not certain where the BTC price would be heading from here onwards. The sentiment around Bitcoin (BTC) is certainly not positive as of now.

Popular crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe stated that $26,400 will serve as a crucial resistance for Bitcoin on the upside. Also, the market could continue to be under pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting later today with the possibility of BTC price slipping further to $24.5-25K.

Discussed in the YouTube update today, but $26.4K crucial resistance for #Bitcoin and couldn't break.

Expecting the markets to drop into FOMC and to take the lows, ultimately area around $24.5-25K is a great area for longing.

And then, we'll have to see what happens. pic.twitter.com/XgoHK0g9OW

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 13, 2023

On the other hand, short-term holders have made strong profits with the BTC price gaining by more than 70% since the beginning of 2023. but Glassnode explains that “as spot price continues to trend lower, the STH Realized Profit / Loss Ratio approaches a decision point (equilibrium)”. Thus, if the STH Realized Profit / Loss Ratio bounces back from the equilibrium point, it would be positive for the market. If it breaks down under the equilibrium point, it would hint at clear weakness.

At the same time, cryptocurrencies’ correlation with equities is disappearing quickly. While the S&P 500 continues to make a move upwards, BTC and ETH have shown a laggard performance recently.