Bitcoin Exchange Supply At 5-Year Low, Will BTC Price Surge?

Bitcoin short-term holders continue to book profits as the STH Realized Profit / Loss Ratio approaches a decision point (equilibrium).
By Bhushan Akolkar
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The world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a phase of consolidation and has been flirting around $26,000 over the past few days. However, the recent SEC lawsuits on Binance and Coinbase have led to further outflows from the exchanges.

On-chain data provider Santiment reported that the Bitcoin exchange supply has dropped to a 5-year low as users choose self-custody amid the ongoing regulatory action. It reported:

“Bitcoin’s exchange supply has now fallen to its lowest level since February, 2018. Traders continue moving $BTC to self custody during the uncertainty surrounding #Binance & #Coinbase. As long as these #SEC lawsuits loom, this trend should continue”.

Courtesy: Santiment

On the other hand, there’s also a clear shift in traders’ focus from Bitcoins to altcoins. On-chain data provider Santiment reports that Bitcoin’s social volume has been finally declining with altcoins like Ethereum, XRP Network, and Binance coin coming into the picture.

Will the Bitcoin Price Surge or Fall Further?

With Bitcoin showing no movement as of now, it’s not certain where the BTC price would be heading from here onwards. The sentiment around Bitcoin (BTC) is certainly not positive as of now.

Popular crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe stated that $26,400 will serve as a crucial resistance for Bitcoin on the upside. Also, the market could continue to be under pressure ahead of the FOMC meeting later today with the possibility of BTC price slipping further to $24.5-25K.

On the other hand, short-term holders have made strong profits with the BTC price gaining by more than 70% since the beginning of 2023. but Glassnode explains that “as spot price continues to trend lower, the STH Realized Profit / Loss Ratio approaches a decision point (equilibrium)”. Thus, if the STH Realized Profit / Loss Ratio bounces back from the equilibrium point, it would be positive for the market. If it breaks down under the equilibrium point, it would hint at clear weakness.

Courtesy: Glassnode

At the same time, cryptocurrencies’ correlation with equities is disappearing quickly. While the S&P 500 continues to make a move upwards, BTC and ETH have shown a laggard performance recently.

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Bhushan Akolkar
Bhushan is a seasoned crypto writer with over eight years of experience spanning more than 10,000 contributions across multiple platforms like CoinGape, CoinSpeaker, Bitcoinist, Crypto News Flash, and others. Being a Fintech enthusiast, he loves reporting across Crypto, Blockchain, DeFi, Global Macros with a keen understanding in financial markets. 

He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills. Bhushan has a bachelors degree in electronics engineering, however, his interest in finance and economics drives him to crypto and blockchain.
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