Bitcoin Options Data Signals Low Volatility Ahead of Jackson Hole Speech Today

All eyes are currently on the Bitcoin options expiry on Friday as the bulls manage to hold the BTC price above $61,000 as of press time. Amid the tight fight between the bulls and the bears, the Bitcoin price has oscillated between $59,000-$61,000 for a large part of this week.

18,474 Bitcoin Options to Expire Today

According to the Deribit data, 18,474 BTC options are set to expire today with a notional value of $1.12 billion and a put-call ratio of 0.83. The put-call ratio shows that the sentiment is not entirely bearish, however, it’s close to 1 showing that the BTC puts have been posing strong competition to the calls. As reported earlier this week, the BTC options block trading is on the rise with traders selling BTC call options and buying the put options. The max pain point of the Bitcoin options expiry is $60,000 as per the below chart.

Furthermore, the data shows a decline in the weekly options positions with the implied volatility also staying neutral ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting later today on Friday. Overall, the options market suggests a period of calm, with a stable term structure and a gradually decreasing expectation of future volatility.

Bitcoin Trading Will Continue to Be Boring

Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the Bitcoin price has remained rangebound oscillating between $50,000-$70,000. Popular crypto analyst Will Woo stated that the BTC price action will continue to stay boring until excess leverage is out of the market.

He added that the BTC crash at the beginning of August led to a significant liquidation of the leveraged position, wiping out most of the open interest from the market. Woo called it a “healthy reset” of the open value, necessary for BTC to climb further.

The analyst added that the BTC price action needs to get really boring before it can make substantial gains. He estimates that the market is about 66% of the way through this process, with much of the speculation now cleared out, though more spot BTC absorption is still needed.

This mid-June assessment is still in play.

BTC price action needs to get really boring.

I feel like we are 66% the way there. Much of the speculation has left, we still need more of the spot BTC to be absorbed.https://t.co/Of24lomrUE

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) August 21, 2024

Woo added that the crypto market has graduated from the bearish to the neutral stand and we’re no longer in the bear market territory. Instead, BTC is experiencing a prolonged consolidation phase, he said.

Ether Options Expiry

Along with Bitcoin options, a total of 140,000 Ethereum (ETH) options will expire today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.93. The Ether options have a max pain point of $2,625 and a notional value of $370 million. As per the data from Coinglass, the ETH options trading volume has surged by 11.63% all the way to $465 million while the ETH open interest has shot up by 5.19% to $11.33 billion.

Currently, the Ethereum price is up 1.4% and trading at $2,672 with a market cap of $321 billion, eyeing a further rally to $3,000. The surge in the Ethereum gas fee to a five-year high has led to concerns about growing ETH supply in the market and the weakness in the Ethereum ecosystem post the Dencun upgrade. However, Vitalik Buterin stated that the Ethereum fundamentals are stronger than ever before.