Bitcoin Price Crash Below $88,000 Likely On Global M2 Money Correlation
Highlights
- Bitcoin vs Global M2 money supply correlation hints at 20-25% drop from the peak.
- Bitcoin long-term holders monthly selling peaks 366,000 BTC, the highest since April 2024.
- Analysts identify critical liquidity zones at $88,000 and $80,000 if BTC remains under pressure.
- Odds of Bitcoin reaching $100K by the year-end slides from 92% to 64%.
Bitcoin price correction could extend to $88,000 or lower if it continues to follow the Global M2 money supply trend. BTC has already dropped over 9% in the past four days after being rejected below the $100K level. Analysts expect this correction to persist as part of a broader cooling-off phase in the BTC rally, driven by profit-taking from long-term holders.
Bitcoin Price and Global M2 Money Supply Correlation
Historically, the Bitcoin chart has always followed the Global M2 Money correlation and the recent Bitcoin correction is in tune with the global liquidity parameter. Since September 2023, BTC price movement has closely mirrored the M2 supply with a lag of 70 days, as per popular analyst Joe Consorti.
In a recent update, Consorti highlighted the correlation’s accuracy, noting that Bitcoin price dropped $5,000 within a day, aligning with patterns set by global M2 weeks earlier.
The analyst warned that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could face a 20-25% correction from its recent highs of $99,000. However, Joe Consorti remains cautious and warned that “we’ll have to see if BTC follows the global M2 path all the way down or stops short and finds support.”
As of press time, the BTC price is trading 1.95% down at $92,864 with a market cap of $1.84 trillion and daily trading volumes soaring to $91.14 billion. The BTC open interest has also tanked 4.74% under $60 billion while options open interest surged 34% to $5.92 billion ahead of Friday’s expiry. Along with Bitcoin, altcoins are declining today as the market euphoria cools off.
BTC On-Chain Data Signals Weakness
In the latest Glassnode report, the analysts reported a surge in activity from long-term holders (LTHs), with selling pressure hitting an intense pace of 366,000 BTC per month. This marks the highest level of Bitcoin offloading by LTHs since April 2024. The analysts added:
“Since the peak in LTH supply set in September, this cohort has now distributed a non-trivial 507k BTC. This is a sizeable volume; however, it is smaller in scale relative to the 934k BTC spent during the rally into the March 2024 ATH”.
Bitcoin Price May Crash to $88,000 and Below?
With the BTC price losing the important support of $94,000, market analysts have started giving even lower targets of $88,000 and even $80,000.
In addition to global M2 supply, crypto analyst Justin Bennett highlights critical liquidity zones for Bitcoin, with the largest block of BTC liquidity in the past 30 days positioned at $73,000, the same levels after which the Bitcoin price rally to $100K began. Bennett notes that as long as Bitcoin remains below $93,600, both $86,000 and $73,000 are key price levels to watch.
According to the prediction market Kalshi, the odds of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 milestone have dropped from 92% to 64% now. Also, the odds of Bitcoin price reaching $100K by November end tanked from 88% to now just at 18%, in the last four days. The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy stock declined 35% in just four days.
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