Bitcoin Price Close Above This Will Trigger Rally to $70K, Will Fed Rate Cut Help?
Highlights
- Bitcoin typically breaks out 150-160 days after a halving event, with September historically delivering poor returns.
- The upcoming Fed rate cut, expected to be either 25 or 50 basis points, could inject liquidity into the market.
- While some expect the Fed rate cuts to fuel Bitcoin’s rally, economist Peter Schiff warned of potential negative consequences.
Just ahead of the FOMC meeting, the Bitcoin price has staged a strong recovery gaining over 4% in the last 24 hours and surging past $60,000 levels. The technical chart shows that BTC is on its way to a breakout from a channel pattern. All eyes are currently on the Fed rate cut announcement by Jerome Powell following hours from now. Banking giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expecting a modest beginning with a 25 bps interest rate cut.
Bitcoin Price Needs Firm Closure above $61,900
Popular crypto strategist Rekt Capital stated that the BTC price has been forming a series of lower highs since late July. Thus, the key level to watch this week would be $61,900, breaking above which could push Bitcoin into an upward trajectory.
Historically, BTC has always given a breakout nearly 150-160 days following the Bitcoin halving event. Thus, going with this historical calendar, the Bitcoin price will breakout from its reaccumulation range by late September 2024.
Furthermore, September has historically been the month of giving poor returns with an average decline of 4.48%. In contrast, October has shown average monthly gains of 22.9%. Thus, this could be the final phase of the long-term consolidation for BTC.
Will Fed Rate Cut Fuel BTC Rally?
At the FOMC meeting on September 18, the US Federal Reserve is planning for a major pivot in its monetary policy and opting for monetary easing through interest rate cuts. However, the Street remains divided on whether this would be a 25 bps rate cut or a 50 bps rate cut.
🚨Here are the Fed rate cut odds heading into the big meeting.
50bps cut = 64%
25bps cut = 36%I believe that Powell will cut by 25bps. pic.twitter.com/Zlpj9qy6vG
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) September 17, 2024
The common consensus in the market has been that the Fed rate cut would flood more liquidity thereby being a catalyst to the Bitcoin price rally. However, renowned economist Peter Schiff stated that the rate cuts won’t actually benefit BTC. He said that this would eventually crush the dollar and reignite inflation.
On the other hand, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has demanded a 75 bps rate cut from the Fed. Custodia Bank founder Caitlin Long said that this would be interesting to watch whether Senator Warren has any weight of word in DC. In the past, she called Powell “a dangerous man” and it’s unlikely that the central bank governor would give any thought to her demands.
GRAB THE POPCORN🍿–we're all about to see whether @SenWarren still has political juice in DC. Remember, she once called Powell "a dangerous man;" & her minions control federal financial regulatory agencies right now. Will she get 75, or will she be revealed as swimming naked??? https://t.co/rVBoU9WFfw
— Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 (@CaitlinLong_) September 18, 2024
On the other hand, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci stated that Bitcoin is about to hit fresh record highs following the Fed rate cuts. If not immediately, this is more likely to happen by the end of Q4.
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