Bitcoin Price Prediction After Completely Invalidating The Bearish Fractal, Has Pre-Halving Rally Began?

Bitcoin (BTC) price remains relatively unchanged on Monday. The weekend session was noticeably uneventful, with BTC upholding support at $34,000. Investors are looking forward to a busy week, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expected to meet and deliberate the next decision on interest rates in the United States.

Why Bitcoin Price Bull Run Depends on The Spot ETFs’ Approval and The Halving

The crypto community is looking toward the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the possibility of approving the first BTC spot exchange-traded fund in the US.

Companies intending to operate the ETFs have been working around the clock over the last couple of weeks modifying their proposals ahead of the potential approvals.

While greenlighting the first Bitcoin spot ETFs is not guaranteed, reports have indicated that the SEC would be inclined to make the approvals to avoid possible lawsuits.

The agency has already suffered a related blow in a lawsuit against Grayscale, the largest digital asset fund manager. Grayscale sued the SEC for declining to approve the conversion of its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product to a BTC spot ETF and won the case.

The fact that the agency did not appeal the ruling that gave Grayscale the node to seek regulatory approval for the spot ETF, implies that the approval is around the corner.

In a couple of reports, analysts at JP Morgan predicted that the SEC could give the first node within the next few months. The investment bank also warned that the SEC could face multiple lawsuits if it fails to approve the ETFs.

Bitcoin price flipped bullish around mid-October following fake news purporting that the SEC had approved an ETF proposal by BlackRock.

The largest crypto ascended above $30,000, lifting the rest of the market in the process. BTC achieved a new 2023 high slightly above $35,000 although it pulled back to test support at $34,000 ahead of the next breakout targeting highs above $30,000.

Besides the anticipated approval of the spot ETFs, the Bitcoin miner rewards halving event in April 2024 would also contribute immensely to the next bull run.

Halving refers to a four-year cycle used to control inflation on the Bitcoin network by reducing in half the rewards miners get for adding blocks to the blockchain. As the number of newly minted coins decreases, it causes a seismic shift in supply and demand dynamics, thus triggering a massive price increase.

Almost all the previous bull runs in Bitcoin price have been associated with Bitcoin halving, which PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model says is only six months away.

Bitcoin Price Steady Above $34,000, Where To Next?

Bitcoin price has retested the immediate support at $35,000 several times since the breakout in October. At the same time, dips have been minor suggesting that these could be the early stages of the bull market and that buyers have the upper hand.

A buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reinforces the bullish control. Notably, Bitcoin price holds above all three bull market indicators including the 21-week EMA, the 100-week EMA, and the 200-week EMA.

A break and hold above $35,000 would assure traders of the next spike to $37,500 and subsequently above $40,000. However, if Bitcoin price continues to wobble below $35,000 bulls may become weary and begin to lose grip of the uptrend. With the bearish fractal completely invalidated, the chances of a sharp spike toward $40,000 have significantly increased.

Key support areas to keep in mind are the buyer congestion levels at $34,000, $31,000, and $28,000, respectively.

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