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Bitcoin Price Will Hit $123K if These 4 Conditions Are Met

Explore 4 conditions that need to be met for Bitcoin price to reach $123K, a new all-time high as January 2025 comes to an end.
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Bitcoin Price Will Hit $123K if These 4 Conditions Are Met

Highlights

  • Bitcoin price needs to meet four conditions to overcome $105K hurdle and set up a new ATH at $123K.
  • Historical returns, whale activity, institutions accumulating BTC and overcoming key hurdles are four key conditions to watch.
  • A flip of $105K hurdle will open the path for BTC to set up a new all-time high at $123K based on Fiboancci extension levels.

Bitcoin price is down -2.80% today and trades at $102,086.0. This pullback has undone 50% of the gains noted after the FOMC meeting and will likely continue this descent as month-end volatility kicks in. With the long-term outlook still bullish and historical data signaling more gains in February, will BTC reach new highs at $123K? Let’s explore.

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Will Bitcoin Price Hit $123K?

Since mid-November 2024, Bitcoin price has been moving sideways. Although BTC has attempted to leave this range multiple times, it has lacked strength. As a result, multiple new highs have been created in the past 78 days of the ongoing consolidation. The most recent ATH of $110K was set up on January 20.

Between November 14 and 22, 2024, Bitcoin shot up nearly 14% to $99,660. Using Fibonacci tool to this trend shows the next ATH was formed at 161.8% Fib level. Considering a similar outlook, the next ATH could form around $123K.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
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4 Conditions Could That Can Propel BTC to $123K

To achieve a new all-time high at $123K or beyond here are four changes or developments that need to occur.

Bitcoin price needs to overcome the $105.5K resistance level. This level is where BTC faced rejection, pausing the post-FOMC rally.

The second condition that hints BTC could reach a new ATH is the divergence between retail and institutional investors. Data from Santiment shows that wallets holding 0 to 10 BTC, belonging to retail investors have been dropping. On the other hand, wallets holding 100 to 1000 BTC have been accumulating. Typically, retail investors react much more to short-term noise and tend to capitulate before the price reaches new highs. Whale accumulation hints that the uptrend is not over and a new ATH is possible.

Retail vs. Whale Wallets

Whale transaction activity, ie., tranfers worth $100K, have dropped since January 24. As noted in the image a spike in this metric often helps drive prices higher. On the contrary, a drop suggests that whales are not interested and is likely going to lead to a period of consolidation or drop. Once this indicator sees a reversal, Bitcoin price has a high probability to reach ATHs.

Whale Transaction Count

From a historical standpoint, the average monthly return for January is around 4%. But February’s average return hovers around 15.66%. Hence, the chances of a new ATH in February, potentially at $123K are high.

Monthly Returns

Out of the above four conditions, two are met, Bitcoin needs to overcome $105K hurdle and whale transctions greater than $100K needs to pause its freefall and spike again. Once all four conditions are met Bitcoin price could set up a new all-time high at $123K.

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Key Levels to Watch as BTC Price Drops

With the end of January, investors can expect the volatility to remain high. Since Thursday’s $106,450 high, Bitcoin price has shed 2.04%. Investors can expect this short-term downtrend to continue around the New York open.

In such a case, here are some key demand levels to watch: $101.5K, $100K, $98.2K and $96.8K.

  • $101.5K  is the confluence of the 78-day range’s upper limit and the current week’s VWAP.
  • Beyond this, the 2025 VWAP at $100K and the 78-day consolidation’s VWAP at $98.2K are the next key support levels.
  • The last and the most important support level is the highest volume traded level in the past 78 days at $96.8K.

These key support levels are good places to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) at a discount. A bounce at these levels could lead to an ATH. Here is a key resistance level to watch: $105K. Overcoming this level will allow Bitcoin price to revisit the current ATH of $110K and set up a new one at $123K.

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Akash Girimath

Senior Cryptocurrency Analyst & Market Strategist Engineer-turned-analyst Akash Girimath delivers data-driven insights on cryptocurrency markets, DeFi, and blockchain technology for platforms like AMBCrypto and FXStreet. Specializing in technical analysis, on-chain analytics, and risk management, he empowers institutional investors and retail traders to navigate market volatility and regulatory shifts. A hands-on strategist, Akash merges active crypto portfolio management with research on Web3, NFTs, and tokenomics. At AMBCrypto, he led cross-functional teams to redesign content frameworks, achieving record-breaking traffic growth through scalable editorial strategies. His analyses dissect market sentiment, investment strategies, and price predictions, blending macroeconomic trends with real-world trading expertise. Known for mentoring analysts and optimizing workflows for high-impact reporting, Akash’s work is cited across global crypto publications, reaching 500k+ monthly readers. Follow his insights on YouTube, X, and LinkedIn for cutting-edge perspectives on decentralized ecosystems and crypto innovation.

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