Bitcoin Shows Greater Weakness Than Post-LUNA Crash; Is a Crash Below $60K Next?

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has reiterated the current weakness in Bitcoin’s price action, noting that there is less demand for the leading crypto now compared to after the LUNA crash in 2022. This indicates that another Bitcoin crash may be on the cards, with a potential drop below the psychological $60,000 level likely to trigger massive liquidations.

Glassnode Hints Another Bitcoin Crash May Be Imminent

In an X post, Glassnode noted that the long-term holder (LTH) Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels. The platform further stated that the recent support above $65,000 is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range and that this demand has absorbed recent sell pressure.

Glassnode warned that a decisive break below this level would likely open the path for a Bitcoin crash toward the Realized Price at around $54,000. In another X post, the analytics platform noted that during BTC’s first sharp leg down in November 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, which was similar to what happened after the LUNA and FTX crashes.

Meanwhile, although the recent Bitcoin crash to $60,000 led to some accumulation, Glassnode stated that it was notably weaker than the November 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse. The platform also noted that the recent crash imposed drastic psychological pressure on these long-term holders, similar to the LUNA crash.

In both cases, the 7-day EMA of the LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell below 1 after trading for one to two years above it. Basically, long-term holders are seeing significant losses, a “rare shift in conviction” that Glassnode noted typically happens in the deeper stages of bear markets.

As CoinGape reported earlier, Glassnode flagged a structural weakness following the recent Bitcoin crash. The platform noted that BTC spot volumes are structurally weak and depressed, creating a demand vacuum and accelerating realized losses. It is worth noting that, in addition to a potential drop to the Realized Price at around $54,000, experts such as veteran trader Peter Brandt have warned that BTC could crash to as low as $40,000 as the bear market deepens.

The Bottom Is Still Not In

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant indicated that BTC has not yet reached a bottom despite these Bitcoin crashes. In a research report, the platform noted that the Realized price support at around $55,000 has not yet been tested.

The report further stated that the BTC price is still trading above this realized price. In past cycles, Bitcoin fell 24% to 30% below the realized price, followed by four to six months of base formation, reinforcing the view that durable bottoms are time-intensive processes rather than single-day capitulation events.

CryptoQuant further noted that LTH behavior does not reflect capitulation, as these holders are currently selling at a breakeven level. However, in past cycles, bear market bottoms have formed after holders endured 30% to 40% losses, indicating that a further Bitcoin crash remains on the cards before a full reset.

Another reason CryptoQuant is confident that Bitcoin hasn’t yet found a bottom is that market cycle indicators remain in the Bear Phase and not the Extreme Bear Phase. This Extreme Bear Phase historically marks the start of the bottoming processes and typically lasts for several months.

It is worth noting that a Bitcoin crash below $60,000 could trigger a liquidation cascade based on activity in the options market. Deribit data shows that the largest cluster of put options is around the $58,000 level. A drop below this crucial support level could liquidate several positions.