Bitcoin vs. Gold: Expert Predicts BTC’s Underperformance as Options Traders Price in $20K Gold Target

Bitcoin’s performance against gold has come under fresh scrutiny after analyst Willy Woo warned that a 12-year valuation trend has broken. Woo said Bitcoin should trade far higher relative to gold, but that markets have not followed that path. At the same time, options traders have reportedly built aggressive bets targeting $20,000 gold by December.

Expert Says Quantum Risk Is Pressuring Bitcoin 

Willy Woo said the long-running Bitcoin-to-Gold valuation trend broke after “quantum” risks entered investor awareness. He argued Bitcoin should be valued much higher relative to gold but noted the market has moved the opposite way.

Woo added that Bitcoin will likely adopt quantum-resistant signatures in the future. However, he said that would not solve the issue of roughly 4 million lost coins potentially re-entering circulation. He estimated a 75% chance that Bitcoin would not freeze those coins through a protocol hard fork.

Notably, Woo framed the risk in accumulation terms. He said that since Strategy began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, companies and spot ETFs together have accumulated about 2.8 million BTC. He argued that 4 million lost BTC would equal roughly eight years of enterprise accumulation.

Woo also claimed the market has already started pricing in the potential return of lost coins. He said that the process may only be completed once “Q-Day” risk leaves the market. He estimated Q-Day could still be 5 to 15 years away, keeping pressure on BTC pricing.

Woo further connected the Bitcoin vs gold divergence to macro demand. He said the next decade could bring debt-cycle stress, pushing investors toward hard assets like gold. He added that this could explain why gold rises while Bitcoin struggles.

Polymarket Odds and Other Analysts’ Views

Others have also been scrutinizing Bitcoin’s outlook. According to Polymarket data, traders currently assign a 28% chance that Bitcoin will outperform gold in 2026.

Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, Ran Neuner said he is questioning Bitcoin’s thesis for the first time in 12 years. He said the key issue was Bitcoin’s response when markets entered real risk and uncertainty. Neuner said Bitcoin shifted from “peer-to-peer cash” into “digital gold,” while institutions gained access through ETFs.

However, he said that when Trump tariffs, currency tension, and fiscal instability appeared, capital moved into gold instead. Neuner added that retail participation is near multi-year lows, while early adopters have largely exited. 

He also said he views crypto differently, noting that AI agents may require programmable settlement rails. In another view, Northstar said Bitcoin is in “clear decay” versus gold. Northstar attributed the trend to a secular capital rotation process that the crypto community may not recognize.

Gold Traders Target $20K as Call Spreads Build After Crash

Gold’s outlook has also shifted in options markets. Milk Road reported that gold crashed 11% in a single day this month, its worst drop in decades. However, the analyst said traders responded by building December call spreads targeting $15,000 and $20,000.

Walter Bloomberg also reported that the position has grown to roughly 11,000 contracts. The trade reportedly expanded even as gold consolidated near $5,000 after briefly topping $5,600 in late January.

State Street’s Aakash Doshi described the far out-of-the-money trade as a “cheap lottery ticket,” according to the report. Milk Road added that the structure limits upside at $20,000 but lowers premium costs. The reports also said the calls lifted implied volatility for far-upside strikes, keeping December in focus.