The Ethereum price has been a victim of the crypto market crash having experienced a drop in its value. ETH’s market performance chart shows a red pattern over the past week with an 18.88% decrease. With an increase of 86% in its value year-to-date the market seems optimistic for the token to hit $8,000 by the end of the year. Let’s find out how possible this is.
The Standard Chartered Bank has mentioned the approval of ETH ETFs and the recent Dencan upgrade as possible drivers of Ethereum price to $8,000 by end of 2024.
The Standard Chartered Bank believes that Ethereum’s recent Dencun upgrade will enhance its competitiveness by reducing transaction fees on Layer 2 networks. He predicts that the importance of the “bridge” category will increase as a result of this upgrade.
Additionally, the bank foresees Ethereum’s future use cases shifting towards gaming and tokenization, which will create a substantial demand through NFT and DeFi channels. It emphasized that this will serve as proof of concept for real-world industries to leverage Ethereum’s advantages over their current systems.The bank expects significant advancements in these areas by 2025-26.
The Standard Chartered Bank has also forecasted that if a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) is approved in the US, Ether could potentially reach $8,000 by the end of this year. It asserts that the ETF inflows are likely for Ethereum (ETH) as it benefits from being considered the “big tech” of digital assets.
The bank anticipates that the US SEC will approve ETH ETFs on 23 May, which is the final deadline for the first batch of applications. This timeline aligns with the SEC’s previous approval of Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in January 2024.
Standard Chartered bullish on Bitcoin and ETH.
Bitcoin TP:
2024: $150k
2025: $200k – $250kETH TP:
2024: 8k
2025: 14k pic.twitter.com/Ahfc2KKVOY— bearishbiasjedi (@FinBizJedi) March 18, 2024
Additionally, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in the UK has announced that it will accept applications for ETH and BTC ETFs, increasing the chances of US approval.
There is an expectation of a significant influx of ETH through ETFs, similar to what was seen with BTC ETFs after their approval. Standard Chartered Bank estimates suggest that spot ETFs could bring in approximately 2.39-9.15 million ETH within the first year of approval, equivalent to around USD 15-45 billion. This inflow as a percentage of market cap is comparable to the previous estimates for BTC ETFs, which have proven to be accurate.
If ETH ETFs receive approval in the US on 23 May as anticipated, there will be greater potential for price growth than previously thought. ETH is expected to keep pace with BTC, maintaining the current 5.4% price ratio throughout 2024. Considering the bank’s projection of BTC reaching USD 150,000 by the end of 2024, this would imply a price of USD 8,000 for ETH.
Various scenarios are showing that Ethereum ETFs approval is unlikely.
Many analysts have become less hopeful about the idea due to regulators’ apparent lack of communication on the matter. The current prediction markets on Polymarket suggest that there is a 28% chance of a spot ether ETF being approved by the end of May. This is a notable decrease from the 74% odds on Polymarket back on January 10, when spot bitcoin ETFs were given the green light.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has revised his prediction for the approval of a spot ether ETF to 30%, down from 70% in January. Balchunas stated, “We are now at 30% odds.” In contrast, his colleague James Seyffart had previously estimated a 60-65% chance of approval. Seyffart expressed his growing pessimism, stating that the current situation for an Ethereum ETF approval feels opposite to the odds for a bitcoin ETF approval. With only approximately 73 days left until the deadline, there appears to be minimal progress or development.
It is unlikely that Ethereum ETFs will be approved this year due to increased political pressure on the Securities and Exchange Commission to only allow ETFs for Ethereum.
Senators Jack Reed and Laphonza Butler have urged SEC Chairman Gensler to refrain from approving more cryptocurrency ETFs to protect investors. They argue that the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January has opened the door for Wall Street to sell risky crypto investments to the public. The senators believe that allowing more crypto ETFs would expose investors to fraud and manipulation in thinly traded markets.
They express concerns about proposed Ethereum ETF applications and the possibility of other altcoins being approved. Reed and Butler emphasize the risks retail investors would face from ETPs, which could be susceptible to fraudulent schemes. They call for greater regulatory oversight on BTC ETF brokers and advisors to safeguard investor interests.
The success of the BTC spot products clearly ruffling some feathers on the Hill. @SenatorJackReed and @Senlaphonza write to the @SECGov urging:
-no further ETPs for other tokens
-make life difficult (i.e. examinations/reviews) for brokers and advisers that recommend BTC ETPs pic.twitter.com/enxdumC02N— Alexander Grieve (@AlexanderGrieve) March 14, 2024
Balchunas believes the success of the Bitcoin ETF has caused regret among Democrats, impacting the approval chances of an ETH ETF. Balchunas noted the Senators’ focus on correlations between ETH futures and spot prices as a potential indicator of future actions by the SEC. He speculated that the SEC may have provided information to the Senators. The analyst also pointed out the technical term “ETP” for 33 Act funds and suggested SEC involvement in drafting the letter. Overall, he sees the letter as a sign of potential rejection of spot ETH ETFs.
Ethereum price is currently at $3,266.05 having decreased by 9.00% over the past day. The token is below its all-time high of $4,891 it achieved on November 16, 2021, which investors are hoping it will hit and surpass during this bull run year. There is quite substantial activity going on in the market regarding ETH as demonstrated by a 63% increase in the 24-hour trading volume. It still holds the second position according to CoinMarketCap, boasting a market cap of $392.18 billion and a circulation supply of 120 million ETH.
ETH is likely to encounter a lot of obstacles in reaching $8,000 by the end of the year, based on the current technical indicators. The 200-day EMA and MACD signals show a strong bearish sentiment, indicating that the price may face more downward pressure. Although there might be temporary recoveries, the overall trend seems difficult for a significant price rise. Traders and investors should keep an eye on important support and resistance levels, as well as the general market sentiment, to accurately assess ETH’s future path.
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