Coinbase Q1 Transaction Revenue To Jump 89% As Base Income Peaks At $20.5M

Messari, a prominent crypto research firm, has unveiled stunning projections for Coinbase’s performance in the first quarter of 2024. The firm’s Senior Research Analyst, Kunal Goel, who spearheaded the analysis offered an optimistic outlook. In addition, he boldly forecasted a remarkable 89% surge in transaction revenue of Coinbase.

Coinbase Q1 FY24 Earnings Estimate

According to the Messari report, the Coinbase net revenue will be propelled to a massive $1.5 billion. Furthermore, this unprecedented growth of 65% QoQ comes on the heels of an extraordinary performance over the past three quarters. In these quarters, Coinbase’s revenue estimates consistently outperformed analyst expectations.

Moreover, the transaction revenue is expected to account for 66% of the net income. Fueling this meteoric rise is the exponential surge in trading volume, led by the recent approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the subsequent surge to fresh all-time highs. According to Messari’s estimates, trading volume doubled in Q1.

Additionally, Goel expects the Coinbase Q1 earnings to beat the Wall Street gross revenue estimates of a staggering $1.2 billion. Moreover, insights acquired from ticker volume data underscore the pivotal role played by retail investors. In addition, these investors are expected to contribute 19% of the trading volume, significantly enhancing fee margins.

One of the most significant contributor to Coinbase growing revenue is Base, which is its Layer 2 solution. As per data from Token Terminal, Coinbase recorded a revenue of $20.52 million from Base in March 2024. This marks a 4x increase of February’s income of about $5 million.

Messari’s detailed estimates outline the breakdown of Coinbase’s revenue streams:

1. Net revenue: $1.5 billion, a remarkable 65% increase quarter-over-quarter.
2. Transaction revenue: Expected to reach $1 billion, soaring by an astounding 89%.
3. Non-trading revenue: Projected to rise by 12%, showcasing diverse revenue streams.

Furthermore, Goel underscored Coinbase’s strategic positioning as a preferred partner for Traditional Finance (TradFi) firms and its role as custodian for eight out of 11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs. In a testament to its versatility and innovation, Coinbase has successfully launched multiple on-chain products. Notably, the integration of Coinbase Wallet with Base enables seamless transactions, which catalyzed the recent surge.

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COIN Stock Target Shows 25% Upside

JMP Securities strengthened its stance on crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) on Tuesday, April 9. Moreover, it emphasized reduced margin for error for the company. Furthermore, the firm upheld its “outperform” rating and raised its price target to $320. This new target signifies a potential 31.7% upside from the stock’s closing price of $242.95 on April 9.

Coinbase’s shares have seen a year-to-date surge of 55%, paralleling Bitcoin’s surge of nearly 70% in 2024. Alongside market momentum, Coinbase has actively addressed cost reduction. Additionally, the company has diversified its revenue streams beyond transaction fees.

The latest Q4 FY23 financial results underscore Coinbase’s advancement. While 2023 revenue experienced a slight dip, adjusted EBITDA soared into positive territory, with the company even reporting a modest net profit. Moreover, at press time, the COIN stock gained 0.64% to 244.51 in the pre-market trading session on Wednesday, April 10.

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