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Highlights
- Court of Appeals have certified US election betting in the country
- This marks a major win for Polymarket and other prediction sites
- Donald Trump has seen a bump in winning odds to tie with Kamala Harris
Betting on Presidential elections featuring Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is now a legal affair. This validation came after prediction market Kalshi received clearance from the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Colombia to continue its activities. These activities primarily involve listing its contracts on which party will win a competition, in this case, the upcoming US presidential election.
Kalshi’s Victory Over CFTC
On October 1, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had its motion against Kalshi denied by the court. Both parties have been at loggerheads for a while. The CFTC has cracked down on the Kalshi platform and attempted to halt its listings.
Even though the CFTC kept pointing out that Kalshi’s activity would impact the elections, the regulator did not make any progress on this attempt as the prediction platform gained victory in court.
In September, Kalshi launched its $100 million betting market on the 2024 U.S. elections. The firm’s CEO Tarek Mansour mentioned that the time had come for these markets to demonstrate their value in offering clarity amid the noise. Furthermore, he emphasized that the contracts are designed to provide insights into political outcomes.
The US regulator continued seeking how to stop the prediction platform from offering contracts that are related to US election outcomes. The CFTC appealed earlier Kalshi victory, pushing the case to the Court of Appeals. Unfortunately, the Court of Appeals opined that the Commission did not show how it or the general public will “suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending appeal.”
On this premise, Circuit Judge Patricia Millett denied the CFTC motion without prejudice to renewal in the event that substantial evidence show up.
Donald Trump Has Higher Winning Odds on Polymarket
Kalshi’s win is obviously a win for Polymarket which the US regulator was already eyeing.
The CFTC once hinted at a proposed rule that would ban election betting at all the futures exchanges on its watch. Polymarket has been engaging the public on the potential outcomes of the upcoming US presidential election between Republican candidate Donald Trump and DNC candidate Kamala Harris.
Before both candidates went on a face off last month, Polymarket prediction showed that there was a 78% chance that Trump will remain ahead in the race. However, the forecast dropped by 3% after the debate, suggesting that Harris made stronger arguments as perceived by bettors.
With regulation now relaxed towards prediction market, more individuals may participate in the betting process. Therefore, one of the candidates could likely see a surge in winning odds.
As of writing, Polymarket odd has showed the gap between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has closed up. After taking the lead recently, Trump now have an equal 49% chance of winning.
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