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Highlights
- As part of his Liberation Day schedule, Donald Trump will announce the reciprocal tariffs at 8pm UTC today.
- Traders are betting that the tariffs will majorly focus on China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, France, and Brazil.
- The crypto market is expected to be impacted following this move, although it remains to be seen what direction prices will head towards.
US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day is finally here. He plans to unveil several reciprocal tariffs, which could significantly impact the crypto market. The Bitcoin price has surged ahead of this event, although it remains unknown if it will stay that way after the announcement.
What To Know About Donald Trump’s Liberation Day
As part of his Liberation Day schedule, Donald Trump has convened his expert trade council to finalize the reciprocal tariffs he intends to impose on several countries. The US President plans to announce these tariffs by 8 pm UTC today at the Rose Garden.
He will unveil these tariffs, aimed at countries that have treated the US ‘unfairly.’ Although the details of the tariffs remain largely unknown, reports suggest that they could include a tiered system of 10% to 20% or a flat 20% global tariff. Meanwhile, the focus remains on the actions or tariffs that Trump may specifically impose on countries such as China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU as a whole.
Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are betting that the reciprocal tariffs will majorly focus on China, Mexico, Canada, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, France, and Brazil.
There are concerns that the reciprocal tariffs could lead to a full-blown trade war between the US and these countries. In line with this, market experts have also discussed the economic risks and how these tariffs could lead to inflation, recession, or stagflation. Consequently, the crypto market could be greatly affected by these developments.
It is worth mentioning that China, Japan, and South Korea have agreed to respond jointly to whatever tariffs the US imposes on them as part of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day move. Meanwhile, Canada and the EU have also made it clear that they will respond with counter-tariffs following Trump’s move.
The Impact On The Crypto Market
Donald Trump’s Liberation Day will undoubtedly greatly impact the crypto market. Experts have discussed how the market will likely react to the US president’s announcement of the reciprocal tariffs.
Crypto financial firm Matrixport said the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market will follow the stock market’s movement. This is based on the strong positive correlation between the flagship crypto and the stock market.
Financial analysts are also divided on what direction prices could head following Trump’s tariffs announcement. FundStrat predicts a V-shaped rebound if Trump targets these tariffs at specific sectors. The financial firm argues that markets have overcorrected and that clarity could spark a rally.
Goldman Sachs has increased the odds of a US recession to 35%, which is bearish for the crypto market. The bank cited GDP drag from weaker investment, higher costs, and global retaliation as what could spark this recession.
The Bitcoin price has surged past the $87,000 mark ahead of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day announcement, which is undoubtedly a huge positive. However, a downtrend could still occur following the announcement.
A plausible reason for this price surge is that the flagship crypto and the broader market have already priced in the tariffs news and are now looking to rebound once Trump’s announcement provides clarity.
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Kevin Capital explained that the crypto market is more focused on the Fed’s monetary policies rather than Trump’s tariffs, which is why it hasn’t crashed that much compared to the stock market.
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