Experts Say Bitcoin CME Gap Brings Short Term Uncertainty Before Uptober Rally Begins
Highlights
- Bitcoin bulls need to defend $111,000 in order to avoid any further downside risk.
- BTC futures open interest rose to $78.5 billion, while daily trading volume jumped 50% to $37.5 billion.
- Analysts see parallels with 2020, when BTC rallied strongly in October after September weakness.
- Historical data shows October gains of 10–30%, fueling optimism for an “Uptober” rally.
Bitcoin price has staged a strong bounce back over the weekend, reclaiming $111,000 levels. This has led to a broader crypto market upside hinting that the September wrath could be behind us as investors prepare for an Uptober rally. For the week starting September 29, BTC futures opened with a CME gap, with experts stating that the short-term uncertainty is likely to persist.
Bitcoin CME Gap Keeps Traders on the Edge
Bitcoin futures on the CME opened with a gap, marking the first such move in several weeks. Historically, CME gaps tend to close quickly. This raises concerns among traders that a near-term pullback could emerge if the pattern repeats.
Analysts note that if the gap closes soon, BTC short-term market structure could weaken. However, they add that the gap may remain open for months, as has rarely happened in the past. The downside risk is considered more relevant if BTC falls below the $111,000 level, stated analyst Daan Crypto Trades.
As of now, Bitcoin price is trading 2.25% up at $111,900, with its daily trading volume surging 50% to $37.5 billion. Furthermore, the Coinglass data shows that the BTC futures open interest surged 2% to over $78.5 billion, while the 24-hour liquidations surged $47 million. The cryptocurrency market saw major leverage flush out last week, triggering over $1 billion in daily liquidations on two separate occasions.
Is Uptober Rally Coming for BTC and Crypto?
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted that Bitcoin secured a weekly close above its bull market support band. He compared the current setup to September 2020, when BTC posted two weeks of gains followed by two weeks of pullbacks. However, what followed later was a strong rally in the month of October. Market veterans like Mike Novogratz believe that BTC rally to $200K is coming in this bull run.
In the recent past, BTC price has seen rejections at $112,000 levels. Thus, crossing past it would be crucial to set the bullish tone ahead. However, a rejection once again at this stage would keep the gates open for a drop to $105K. Despite the strong selling pressure this month in September, BTC is still trading 3% up on the month chart. CoinGlass data shows that BTC has always given strong 10-30% gains in October over the past decade, thereby referring to it as Uptober rally.
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