Glassnode Data Shows Bitcoin May Drop To $105.5K This Week, Here’s Why

Traders predominantly brace for Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry today, anticipating a drop in prices after the recent rebound across the crypto market. Leading on-chain platform Glassnode predicts Bitcoin risks dropping back towards $105.5k if bulls fail to hold a key level.

$4.5 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options to Expire Today

The latest Bitcoin options expiry will set the stage for the largest options expiry, which could shake the broader crypto market immensely.

30K BTC options with a notional value of $3.52 billion set to expire on the largest derivatives exchange Deribit, September 19. The put-call ratio is 1.23, indicating bearish sentiment as traders continue to place put bets in response to the quarterly expiry next week after the latest crypto market rally.

In the last 24 hours, the put-call ratio is at 0.77 as call volume surpasses 22,300 in comparison to a put volume of 17,250. This signals a cautious sentiment among options traders awaiting cues leading up to the next major expiry.

The max pain price is $114,000, way below the current market price. Options traders may look to bring BTC down towards the max pain point, with puts clustered around $100,000-108,000 strike price.

Meanwhile, over 177K ETH options of notional value $0.80 billion to expire on Deribit, with a put-call ratio of 1. It indicates bearish sentiment among traders and a likely drop in ETH price.

In the last 24 hours, the call volume was 66,142, slightly higher than put volume of 62,281 at publishing time. The put-call ratio is at 0.77.

Moreover, the max pain price is at $4,500, still below the current ETH price of $4,539. Notably, the $4,500 strike price has higher total call options bets of $22 million than $17 million in put options. This suggests a potential downward bias, as call buyers will likely aim to drive the price towards the level to minimize losses.

Glassnode Predicts BTC Risks Falling to $105.5K

The crypto market rebounded after the US SEC approved generic listing standards for crypto ETFs, with BTC price nearly hitting $118K amid high expectations of a post-Fed rate cut rally towards $120K.

According to Glassnode data, 95% of holders are in profit, increasing profit booking risk. Futures show short squeezes and options open interest hit a record 500k BTC ahead of the major September 26 expiry. Bulls need to hold above the $115.2K level to continue moving upside. A consequent drop could trigger a Bitcoin crash to $105.5k.

The max pain point sits near $110K, the level where most options would expire. Notably, this is a “Triple Witching,” as it combines weekly, monthly, and quarterly maturities, concentrating flows and liquidity.